Airport Master Plan October 1985 (2)

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SF-00006-02 DEPARTMENT Nrci/DOT -Aeronautics To Harry Nemec FROM Richard Theisen ` `~ sue~ECT: Anoka Gateway Airport Master Plan Forecasts STATE OF MINt:ESOTA O f f ice Memorandum DATE: June 27, 1985 PHONE:296-2552 In my opinion, the forecast of 36,900 operations at Gateway by the end of the forecast period is overly optimistic. The air- port is outside the urbanized part of the metro area and, therefore, is not likely to attract much itinerant business traffic. In addition, the proximity of bigger, more established airports (Anoka County and Crystal) further lessen this possi- bility. The level of private and recreational flying throughout the - nation, has been depressed since the economic slump of the early 1980s and some forecasters are predicting that it will remain depressed well into-the future. In the 1979 update of Mri/DOT's Airport Development Guide, the number of aircraft operations was forecast to grow at the rate of 3% per year for the period ' 1983-2000. Our current data on aircraft movements suggest that this was a reasonable assumption. Applying that growth rate to the consultant's estimate of 8,500 operations at the airport in - 1984, there would be about 14,500 operations at Gateway in 2003. Even at a 6~ growth rate, there would be only 24,200. Therefore, it appears that an estimate in the 20,000 range would be more in line with what is presently happening in general aviation. 2. Environmental Ccnsiderations The airport commission and the city council should recognize that the proposed project would very likely have significant environ- mental impacts. Though the project does not exceed any of the mandatory thresholds for state environmental review, a petition with 25 signatures could trigger such review. Also, if federal aid is anticipated, an environmental assessment would have to be prepared and approved by the Federal Aviation Administration. Because of the amount of land acquisition and the number of re- sidences and businesses that would have to be relocated, the socio-economic impacts of the project would very likely be con- sidered significant. That would mean that an environmental im- pact statement would have to be prepared, rather than a negative declaration or finding of no significant impact.