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Stations in each city have individual draw areas that contain the residence location of Northstar
<br />riders that use that station. Draw areas were delineated based on rider surveys conducted by the
<br />Metropolitan Council for Fridley, Coon Rapids, Anoka, Elk River, and Big Lake Stations. The
<br />Ramsey Station Draw Area is based on a survey conducted in 2012 by Metro Transit. The draw
<br />area cities are shown on Map 4-3, along with the Northstar cities.
<br />Historic Residential Growth
<br />Building permits for the Metropolitan Area, North Growth Corridor, Northstar Corridor Draw
<br />Area, and Northstar cities were examined from 1991 through September 2012, shown in Table 4-
<br />16, to determine household growth trends. Annual Metropolitan Area building permits ranged
<br />from 12,060 to 17,679 between 1991 and 1999. As the housing boom unfolded, building permits
<br />increased from 17,679 in 1999, peaked at 20,973 in 2003, which was followed by a decline to
<br />12,109 in 2006 when the housing boom ended. Building permits declined by 67 percent from
<br />12,109 in 2006 to 4,028 in 2009 and began a slight recovery to 5,014 units in 2010. Based on
<br />nine months experience in 2012, it appears that building permits in 2012 will be significantly
<br />higher than recorded in the 2008 to 2011 period. Three periods contained in Table 4-16 reflect a
<br />relatively normal period (1991 to 1998); a boom period (1999 to 2006) and a recessionary period
<br />(2007 to 2012). Building permit trends in each period provide insight into future residential
<br />development trends.
<br />Table 4-16
<br />NORTH GROWTH CORRIDOR AND RAM SEY
<br />RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS; 1991 TO 2012*
<br />Northstar Corridor Ramsey Station
<br />North Growth Corridor Draw Area Draw Area Ramsey
<br />Metropolitan Building M arket M arket Building M arket Building M arket Building
<br />Year Area Permits Share Share Permits Share Permits Share Permits
<br />1991 12,060 1,912 15.85 % 86.45 % 1,653 17.91 % 296 51.35 % 152
<br />1992 15,632 2,713 17.36 84.48 2,292 20.24 464 60.13 279
<br />1993 15,882 2,924 18.41 77.39 2,263 26.87 608 61.68 375
<br />1994 14,205 2,140 15.07 84.67 1,812 25.00 453 54.75 248
<br />1995 13,956 2,124 15.22 89.41 1,899 27.54 523 42.45 222
<br />1996 14,098 2,505 17.77 86.59 2,169 25.17 546 50.55 276
<br />1997 13,234 2,195 16.59 89.43 1,963 25.22 495 46.67 231
<br />1998 15,817 2,944 18.61 91.98 2,708 21.38 579 53.02 307
<br />1999 17,679 3,049 17.25 93.34 2,846 13.84 394 33.50 132
<br />2000 17,050 2,450 14.37 93.27 2,285 18.51 423 25.77 109
<br />2001 16,788 2,668 15.89 95.31 2,543 16.00 407 28.99 118
<br />2002 19,782 2,751 13.91 96.58 2,657 19.53 519 42.20 219
<br />2003 20,973 3,958 18.87 90.15 3,568 30.91 1,103 41.16 454
<br />2004 19,832 4,119 20.77 93.59 3,855 30.17 1,163 48.50 564
<br />2005 11,514 3,117 27.07 81.14 2,529 30.25 765 51.11 391
<br />2006 12,109 2,055 16.97 91.87 1,888 23.89 451 39.02 176
<br />2007 8,039 1,254 15.60 94.26 1,182 30.63 362 63.54 230
<br />2008 4,711 544 11.55 92.10 501 20.76 104 72.12 75
<br />2009 4,028 556 13.80 93.71 521 13.05 68 66.18 45
<br />2010 5,014 701 13.98 96.15 674 11.72 79 75.95 60
<br />2011 4,549 810 17.81 73.95 599 6.84 41 56.10 23
<br />2012* 6,436 1,016 15.79 85.93 873 36.20 316 90.82 287
<br />Total 283,388 48,505 17.12 % 89.23 % 43,280 23.47 % 10,159 48.95 % 4,973
<br />Average 13,188 2,261 2,019 469 223
<br />*Through September 2012
<br />Average excludes 2012
<br />Source. US Census and McComb Group, Ltd
<br />North Growth Corridor market share of the Metropolitan Area building permits has averaged
<br />17.1 percent between 1991 and 2012. During the period 1991 to 1998, market share averaged
<br />4-16
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