Agenda - Council Work Session - 09/24/2013

Home

16.9 percent. Market share average increased to 18.1 percent in the 1999 to 2006 period. This increase was influenced by one year (2005) when market share was 27.1 percent. If 2005 market share is excluded, the average of the other seven years is 16.9 percent, generally consistent with the previous period. During the last four years (2008 through 2011), building permit market share ranged from 11.6 percent in 2008 to 17.8 percent in 2011. Market share has increased each full year since 2008. Even though building permits have declined sharply, the North Growth Corridor has maintained a relatively consistent market share. Building permits in the Northstar Corridor Draw Area increased from 1,653 in 1991 to 2,708 in 1998. During this eight year period, market share ranged from 77.4 percent to a peak of 92.0 percent in 1998 and averaged 86.3 percent. Market shares have increased to an average of 91.9 percent during the housing boom from 1999 to 2006. Since the housing boom ended in 2006, market share has averaged 90.0 percent over a five year period. In the first four years of that period, the market share was 94.0 percent. While the number of building permits has been declining, the Northstar Corridor Draw Area has maintained strong market share performance. Ramsey Residential Growth The Ramsey Station Draw Area includes Ramsey, Elk River, and Nowthen. Between 1991 and 1998, the draw area market share averaged 23.7 percent. During the period between 1999 and 2007, this area achieved a similar average market share of 23.0 percent of Northstar Corridor Draw Area building permits. Building permit market share for the Ramsey Station Draw Area ranged from 13.8 to 30.9 percent between 1999 and 2008, with 2003 through 2005 being the most productive years for Ramsey's residential development. Since 2008, Ramsey Station Draw Area cities have experienced reduced market share as a result of declining home construction. Average market share for the 2007 to 2012 was about 20 percent. Ramsey's market share of the Ramsey Station Draw Area building permits averaged 52.6 percent for the period 1991 through 1998. Annual market share fluctuated between 42.5 and 61.7 percent during this period. Residential development slowed during the 1999 to 2001 time period due to a shortage of residential lots. Development accelerated in 2004. Ramsey's residential development declined between 2008 and 2011, while market share increased. From 2008 to 2012, Ramsey's market share of Ramsey Station Draw Area building permits has averaged 70.8 percent. Market share increased to 90.8 percent in 2012 year-to-date due to a 238 unit apartment building. Multi -Family Development Trends Development potential for most of the Ramsey Station areas is likely to be some form of multi- family housing which represents a residential submarket. Multi -family housing includes for -sale and for -rent multi -family buildings, duplexes, and townhomes. The historic market share of multi -family housing in relation to total housing in the Northstar Corridor Draw Area is contained in Table 4-17. Northstar Corridor Draw Area multi -family building permits averaged 11.1 percent market share of total building permits from 1991 to 1998. Multi -family market share increased to an average of 23.3 percent from 1999 to 2006, and continued to increase to an average of 24.4 percent in the 2007 to 2011 period. This demonstrates that the Northstar Corridor Draw Area has become more attractive for multi -family development. 4-17