|
tMetropolitan Council
<br />What Lies Ahead: Population, Household and Employment Forecasts to 2040
<br />The Metropolitan Council
<br />forecasts population, households
<br />and employment for the seven -
<br />county Minneapolis -St. Paul
<br />region with a 30-year time
<br />horizon.
<br />The Council will allocate this
<br />regional forecast to local
<br />communities through additional
<br />modeling. The Council's local
<br />land use model will represent the
<br />expected spatial distribution of
<br />population, households and
<br />employment during 2010 to 2040,
<br />given real estate and location
<br />choice dynamics, and regional
<br />policies and local land use
<br />controls. The ultimate results of
<br />this project —a final regional
<br />forecast, together with local
<br />forecasts —will be incorporated
<br />into the next metropolitan
<br />development guide scheduled for
<br />Council adoption in early 2014.
<br />Consistent with Minnesota
<br />Statutes 473.146 and 473.859,
<br />the regional and local forecasts
<br />are intended as a statement of
<br />future expectations and will
<br />reflect regional planning and
<br />policies.
<br />For more information about the
<br />methodology behind these
<br />regional forecasts, see p. 5.
<br />For more information, contact:
<br />Todd Graham
<br />Principal Forecaster
<br />todd.araham( metc.state.mn.us
<br />651-602-1322
<br />Metropolitan Council Forecasts to 2040
<br />Apri12012
<br />Metropolitan Council's preliminary forecast anticipates
<br />increasing demographic diversity and continued growth
<br />for the seven -county Minneapolis -St Paul region by
<br />2040. The region's population is projected to grow by
<br />893, 000. By 2040, 43 percent of residents will be
<br />persons of color.
<br />Population
<br />Households
<br />Employment
<br />2010 2020 2030 2040
<br />2,850,000 3,144,000 3,447,000 3,743,000
<br />1,118,000 1,293,000 1,464,000 1,576,000
<br />1,548,000 1,743,000 1,943,000 2,118,000
<br />The seven -county Minneapolis -St. Paul region is projected to gain
<br />893,000 people over the next three decades, reaching 3,743,000
<br />residents in 2040, up from 2,850,000 in 2010. Projected growth rates,
<br />9 to 10 percent per decade, are well below the historic growth rates of
<br />15 percent per decade in the 1980s and the 1990s.
<br />Natural population growth, or births outpacing deaths, will add 609,000
<br />residents. Natural population growth will account for over two-thirds,
<br />or 68 percent, of the total population growth from 2010 to 2040. Birth
<br />rates are higher among families of color than white families,
<br />contributing to the increasing racial diversity of the region.
<br />One-third of the population increase in the Minneapolis -St. Paul region
<br />will result from migration. The Minneapolis -St Paul area is likely to
<br />gain 463,000 new residents through international immigration while
<br />losing 179,000 residents to domestic out -migration.
<br />The Minneapolis -St. Paul region will continue to be an immigration
<br />gateway throughout the 30-year period, and immigration will
<br />substantially advance the region's diversity. Of the expected
<br />international immigrants, 83 percent will be people of color, from all
<br />continents; the remainingl7 percent will be white, non -Hispanic.
<br />Publication No. 74-12-016
<br />METROPOLITAN COUNCCL ■ RESEARCH • 390 ROBERT STREET NORTH, ST PAUL, MN 55101-1805 • WWW.METROCOUNCIL.ORG
<br />
|