Agenda - Council Work Session - 10/29/2013

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MetroStats What Lies Ahead: Population, Household and Employment Forecasts to 2040 April 2012 Components of Population Growth, 2000-2040 231,000 218,000 203,000 188,000 Net domestic migration —between the Twin Cities region and the rest of the nation —will be negative, totaling a loss of 179,000 residents during 2010-40. This is not a new trend; US Census data shows out- • Natural Growth migrants leaving the region have ■ International Migrants 108,000 125,000 159,000 179,000 outnumbered new domestic arrivals during the past decade. Domestic Migrants -50,000 - :,. . . -71,000 Geographic position and perceived attractiveness of the Minneapolis -St. Paul area are challenges to domestic migration. While the 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 region's employment and business opportunities draw international immigrants, the Twin Cities are less attractive to movers who have other priorities. This trend is projected to continue into the future unless there is a major change that dramatically alters domestic perceptions of attractiveness and amenity value. Migration and natural population growth together will replenish the Minneapolis -St Paul region's school enrollments and workforce. The Council forecasts 254,000 additional residents under the age of 25 in the Minneapolis -St Paul region, up from 965,000 in 2010 to 1,219,000 in 2040, for a 26 percent increase. These dynamics will balance out the rapid expansion of the region's senior citizen (65 and over) population. The senior population in the Twin Cities area will double between 2010 and 2030 and will continue growing throughout the projections period, from 307,000 seniors in 2010 to 770,000 seniors in 2040. Between the aging of Baby Boomers and longer life expectancies, senior citizens will become a substantial cohort of the population in the Minneapolis -St. Paul area. In 2010, senior citizens were 11 percent of the region's population; in 2040, seniors will be 21 percent of the population. • Ages 65+ Ages 25-64 • Ages 15-24 • Ages 0-14 Population by Age, 2010-2040 2010 770,000 461,000 1,754,000 441,000 . 475,000 111 515,000 2020 2030 2040 As the age profile of the population shifts, the mix of households in the Minneapolis -St. Paul area is also changing. The Council forecasts 1,576,000 households in 2040, an increase of 41 percent from 2010. Senior citizens are the most significant contributors to household growth as seniors tend to live alone or with a spouse. Most of the forecasted gain in households (58 percent) is reflected in net growth of one - person households (up 179,000 over 30 years) and of married couples without children (up 87,000). 2 METROPOLITAN COUNCIL ■ RESEARCH • 390 ROBERT STREET NORTH, ST. PAUL, MN 55101-1805 ■ ylWVW.METROCOUNCIL ORG