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MetroStats
<br />What Lies Ahead: Population, Household and Employment Forecasts to 2040 April 2012
<br />of people of color and white residents. These trends will affect the composition of the region's working -age
<br />residents, with significant implications for the future workforce of the region. The number of white
<br />residents, ages 25-64, will shrink by 21 percent (from 1,262,000 in 2010 to 992,000 in 2040), while the
<br />population of color in the same age cohort will more than double, climbing from 317,000 in 2010 to
<br />762,000 in 2040. The share of people of color will increase from 20 percent of working -age residents in
<br />2010 to 43 percent in 2040.
<br />■ Ages 65+
<br />Ages 25-64
<br />■ Ages 15-24
<br />■ Ages 0-14
<br />282,000
<br />1,262,000
<br />264,000
<br />366,000
<br />Population by Race / Ethnicity and Age
<br />407,000
<br />1,194,000
<br />270,000
<br />340,000
<br />562,000
<br />,064,00'
<br />255,000
<br />595,000
<br />992,000
<br />244,000
<br />316,000 298,000
<br />25,000
<br />317,000
<br />119,000
<br />216,000
<br />54,000
<br />450,000
<br />170,000
<br />258,000
<br />104,000
<br />175,000
<br />762,000
<br />271,000
<br />405,000
<br />2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040
<br />White White White White People of People of People of People of
<br />Color Color Color Color
<br />The Council's population forecasts anticipate an increasingly diverse student body in the region. The
<br />population of color under age 25 will double in size, up from 335,000 in 2010 to 676,000 in 2040. In
<br />contrast, the number of white residents under age 25 would decrease from 630,000 in 2010 to 543,000 in
<br />2040, pulling down the share of white school -age children and young adults in this age of group from 65
<br />percent in 2010 to 45 percent in 2040.
<br />Migration dynamics are the major factor in this demographic transition. People moving from the
<br />Minneapolis -St Paul area to other parts of the nation (domestic out -migration) are mostly white and older
<br />(retirees). In contrast, the region's gain of international immigrants is predominantly people of color,
<br />mostly people in their 20s, often immigrating with children.
<br />The Council forecasts an employment gain of 570,000 jobs, up from 1,548,000 in 2010 to 2,118,000 in
<br />2040. The Council anticipates employment growth will range from 13 percent in the current decade to 9
<br />percent in the 2030s. This growth compares to a net employment loss over the 2000s and previous gains
<br />of 34 percent in the 1970s, 22 percent in the 1980s, and 26 percent in the 1990s.
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<br />METROPOLITAN COUNCIL ■ RESEARCH ■ 390 ROBERT STREET NORTH, ST. PAUL, MN 55101-1805 ■ WWW.METROCOUNCIL,ORG
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