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MetroStats <br />What Lies Ahead: Population, Household and Employment Forecasts to 2040 April 2012 <br />The region's Gross <br />Metro Product, the <br />sum of value added <br />by all industry <br />sectors, will rise to <br />$400 billion in <br />2040—equivalent to <br />1.5 percent of the US <br />Gross Domestic <br />Product. For context, <br />the Minneapolis -St <br />Paul region has less <br />than 1.0 percent of <br />the nation's population. <br />779,000 <br />Historic and Forecasted Employment 2,118,000 <br />1,608,000 1,548,000 <br />1,273,000 - <br />1,040,000 <br />1,743,000 <br />1,943,000 <br />1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 <br />Employment opportunities in the Minneapolis -St Paul region attract not only new migrants, but also <br />commuting workers living in Greater Minnesota or Wisconsin. In 2010, the Council estimates that 7.7 <br />percent of earnings at Minneapolis -St. Paul workplaces are earned by commuters into the region. (This is <br />offset by 1.5 percent of the region's household earnings coming from work outside the Twin Cities region.) <br />This balance of workers commuting in, and earnings returning with those workers to their place of <br />residence, is projected to remain unchanged over the projections period as the Minneapolis -St Paul <br />region remains the predominant economic center for a large part of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. <br />About the Council's Forecasts <br />To prepare its long-range forecast, the Metropolitan Council has adopted REMI PI+, a regional <br />macroeconomic model, and ProFamy, a demographic model. Both models have been customized to <br />include additional regional data and represent Minneapolis -St Paul regional conditions. <br />The REMI PI+ model represents regional economic dynamics and projects time -series of economic and <br />demographic outcomes. The REMI PI+ projections are informed by data on the region's industry mix, <br />costs and productivity, and analysis of regional competitiveness and relative position within the national <br />economy. Employment, migration and population outcomes directly flow from projected economic <br />performance. <br />The Metropolitan Council is using ProFamy, an extended cohort -component simulation model, to group <br />populations into household types. These projections are informed by age -by -race -specific demographic <br />schedules of birth rates, household formation and dissolution rates, fertility, and mortality rates. The end - <br />product is a time -series of projections of household counts by household type. <br />5 <br />METROPOLITAN COUNCIL ■ RESEARCH ■ 390 ROBERT STREET NORTH, ST. PAUL, MN 55101-1805 ■ WWW.METROCOUNCIL,4RG <br />