Agenda - Council - 11/26/2013 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Our Mission: To work together to responsibly grow our community, and to provie quality, cost-effective, an efficient government services CC Regular Session Meeting Date: 11/26/2013 By: Tim Gladhill, Community Development Information Title: Consider Response to Metropolitan Council 2040 Preliminary Forecasts 4. 5. Purpose/Background: Minnesota Statutes Chapter 473 provides direction to the Metropolitan Council in regard to the foundation for regional planning. This is the chapter that provides guidance for communities within the metropolitan area to prepare Comprehensive Plans. The Regional Planning Cycle updates once every ten (10) years following the completion of the US Census. The next stage in the Regional Planning Cycle is to prepare the 2040 Regional Development Framework. This task is completed by the Metropolitan Council and is currently underway. The current process is also known as Thrive MSP 2040. Included in the Development Framework are goals, policies, and implementation strategies for the region as a whole. The Development Framework also includes forecasts for future household, population, and employment growth. The planning period for the Development Framework will be through 2040. These forecasts and policies are important to review as they will have effects on a number of aspects for the City; development of the Comprehensive Plan Update, financing for regional systems (roads, parks, trails, sewers, etc.). The Metropolitan Council has released preliminary local forecasts for the year 2040. The Metropolitan Council has not yet released revised forecasts for the years 2020 and 2030. The Metropolitan Council has released preliminary local forecasts in advance of the official review process to give local communities a chance to comment and allow the forecasting model to be re -calibrated. Ramsey's preliminary forecasts are as follows: (Year (2040) 'Households 112,500 !Population 128,400 !Employment 17,000 For comparison purposes, existing estimates are as follows: (Year (2012) 'Households 18,134 'Population 123,946 'Employment 15,303 The preliminary forecasts do represent continued growth and development within Ramsey through 2040. However, these forecasts do represent a reduction in forecasted growth when compared to the City's current Comprehensive Plan and growth forecasts. In response, Metropolitan Council Staff has indicated that existing forecasts in the current Comprehensive Plan would be honored; however, those ultimate growth forecasts would be anticipated to be experienced at a date beyond 2040 instead of at 2030. The existing forecasts from the 2030 Comprehensive Plan are as follows: IlAt Fully Developed 'Households 1115,900 'Population 1142,500 'Employment 1112,050 There could be a number of factors that have led to the revised forecasts, including previous economic conditions, changes in regional policies, changes to model assumptions and software, etc. Included in the agenda packet are a number of presentations prepared by the Metropolitan Council as background on demographics and assumptions that framed the initial preparation of the preliminary forecasts. Staff attended a Local Officials Workshop on Tuesday, October 29, 2013 to better understand the policies, assumptions, and technical components that went into the forecast model. Responses to the preliminary forecasts are due by December 1, 2013. Following that date, the model will be re -calibrated and re -run. At that time, the forecasts will be sent for official comments by local communities. There will be future opportunities to further refine these forecasts. Staff recommends that the City host a process similar to what was used to develop the Future Land Use Map for the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update to help formulate a portion of the City's forecast recommendations (total capacity). This process was also recently used for small area land use planning at the former municipal center as well as the 167th Avenue node at TH 47. This process would focus on the mapping exercise that was completed at the end of the previous Comprehensive Plan Update. Although this process would not be completed by the December 1 deadline, it could be completed during the official comment period. The intent of this process is to have the Future Land Use Map inform our response to the Forecasts versus the Forecasts inform our decisions on the Future Land Use Map. During the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update process completed during 2008-2010, a major comment was in regards to the growth forecasts appearing to be too aggressive and not reflective of the true market. Additionally, some participants felt that the forecasts were driving the development of the Future Land Use Map, versus the Future Land Use Map helping to inform the process of developing the forecasts. However, at that time, the City was unable to adjust forecasts as