Agenda - Council - 11/26/2013 - Laserfiche WebLink

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low as originally desired, as the forecasts had already been adopted in advance of the Comprehensive Plan Update process. This is a key factor as to why the City should remain involved in this current forecast development process. The most recent City documents that addressed growth forecasts were the 2012 Comprehensive Sanitary Sewer and Water Studies. These studies acknowledged that the current forecasts would not be experienced by the year 2030 due to the economic conditions at that time. These studies assumed an average, flat -rate household growth of 260 new households per year. This assumption was a simple assumption, using a combination of historical average growth rates and previous comprehensive plan assumptions. In comparison, the preliminary 2040 forecasts would be an average growth rate of 150 households per year. NOTE: Staff is not assuming a linear growth rate; these averages are used for illustrative/comparison purposes only. The Planning Commission has recommended that the City focus equally on population as well as household forecasts. The Preliminary Forecasts appear to be more focused on the number of Households, with Population forecasts to be finalized at a later date. As the report will note below, several key factors and investments will utilize Population Forecasts in prioritizing goals and investments. Included in extrapolating population growth from Household Forecasts, Household Size (persons per household) should be refined based on 2010 Census figures. It is noted that, regardless of what the official forecast becomes, the City does have the ability to request a Comprehensive Plan Amendment if actual growth experienced exceeds the forecasted amount. In addition, as noted above, it appears that the Metropolitan Council will honor the total capacity of households, population, and employment from the 2030 Comprehensive Plan (existing). However, if it is going to be the policy of the City that it expects and/or encourages growth at a higher rate than an average of 150 households per year, that the City's response should recommend a change to the preliminary forecasts. There is additional time and process associated with Comprehensive Plan Amendments if the City wants to adjust those in the future. As previously stated, a number of factors will have an impact on future growth. For purposes of this preliminary review, Staff has focused on two (2) major topics that could restrict future growth if left un-addressed: 1. Transportation Capacity (Highway 10/Highway 47) 2. Water Supply Capacity (Groundwater Supply/Surface Water Supply) Transportation Capacity The current draft response comments on the capacity of Highway 10 and Highway 47 . Although future growth forecasts are lower than what is in the current Comprehensive Plan, the City should acknowledge that both systems currently have capacity and congestion issues. The Planning Commission recommended that it is important that regional policies address capacity of these systems, even if no growth were experienced, based on existing levels of service. (NOTE: the current Comprehensive Plan classified Highway 10 as Level of Service 'F' at current levels over the entire stretch through Ramsey. Level of Service scoring ranges from A-F, with F being the lowest score possible). Water Supply Capacity Also included in the draft response is a comment on water supply issues for future growth. The City currently derives its municipal water supply from a series of groundwater wells and pump houses. Based on water supply availability and historical usage data, it will be important to continue to address water conservation and alternative supply issues in the near future. The current draft response calls for a need to address water supply issues as a regional issue, not as a local issue. Timeframe Responses to the Preliminary Forecasts are due by December 1, 2013 in order to be included with the 're -calibrated' forecasts. Once re -calibrated, these forecasts will be the foundation for the development of the 2040 Comprehensive Plan Update. The Regional Framework will be developed based on these forecasts through 2014. The Regional Framework will then lead to System Plans (Land Use, Transportation, Wastewater, Parks and Open Space). The System Plans then lead to Local System Statements that will be the driver of the City's 2040 Comprehensive Plan Update and will be available in late 2015. The 2040 Comprehensive Plan Update will be due December 31, 2018. Notification: Notification is not required. Observations/Alternatives: Alternative #1. Approve the draft response as drafted. The draft response has been reviewed as part of a Joint Work Session with the City Council, Planning Commission, and EDA. In addition, the draft response was reviewed in greater detail with the Planning Commission and noted with the EDA. The draft response appears in line with current City policy directives. Alternative #2. Do not respond to 2040 Preliminary Forecasts. Based on feedback from the 2030 Comprehensive Plan Update, Staff does not recommend this alternative. As noted above, multiple comments were received as part of that previous process that the community desired to review forecasts as part of the City's Comprehensive Plan Update. However, if that is the desire of the community, this current process is the appropriate time to raise such comments. Alternative #3. Amend the draft response. This alternative would be based on discussion. Funding Source: Review of the 2040 Preliminary Forecasts are being handled as part of normal Staff duties. Recommendation: The Planning Commission recommended approval of the attached response, with amendments to reflect a desire to more accurately reflect population growth rather than a focus on number of households. The response was also reviewed by the Economic Development Authority (EDA), which did not express any concern with the proposed approach. Action: Motion to approve the attached response to the Metropolitan Council 2040 Preliminary Forecasts. Attachments 2040 Preliminary Forecasts Proposed Outcomes. Principles. and Policies of the 2040 Framework - Metropolitan Council