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City of Ramsey 2030 Comprehensive Plan
<br />Appendix A: Community Background
<br />Assuming the housing market improves and excess supply is absorbed, forecasted growth for Ramsey
<br />from 2010 to 2020 appears in-line with the regional housing trends presented in the previous section.
<br />However, due to an aging population that will increase pressure to develop at the contiguous edge of the
<br />metro area, the forecasts may be somewhat low as some of the development that would have been
<br />expected to leap -frog past Ramsey into Sherburne County over the next 25 years is likely to be captured
<br />at the contiguous edge. This is provided land is made available for development at densities that are
<br />financially feasible to most private developers.
<br />Another way to interpret forecasted growth trends is to compare the development experience of Ramsey
<br />with nearby Coon Rapids (Table 3-7). As discussed previously, Coon Rapids had been at the contiguous
<br />edge of the metropolitan area for over 30 years and, as a result, captured a sizable portion of residential
<br />development in the northwest sector. At the peak period of development in the 1980s, Coon Rapids
<br />captured 14 percent of the household growth for the entire NW sector of the Metro area. Now that Coon
<br />Rapids is nearly built out, it is reasonable to assume that Ramsey could absorb a similar amount of
<br />development given its availability of developable land. It should be noted, however, that this analysis is a
<br />summary of market forces and trends, and is not a prescription for development in Ramsey.
<br />Table 3-7
<br />Household Growth Trends in Ramsey, Coon Rapids, and NW Metro
<br />Ramey
<br />Coon Rdpids
<br />Northwest Metro
<br />16 -County Metro Area
<br />Ramsey as F. of NWMetro
<br />Coon Rapids Ftp. of NWMetro
<br />NWMetro as Ftt. of 16 -County Metro
<br />Net Increase in Number of I-buseholds
<br />1960s
<br />1970s
<br />1980s
<br />Estimate
<br />1990s 2000-2005
<br />Rojeded Nd Inaase
<br />2000s
<br />2010s
<br />2020s
<br />314 2,019 960 2,286 1,292 2,000t 5,300 300
<br />3,329 3,559 7,113 5,129 892 3,022 900 500
<br />41,510 50,870 50,908 51,945 30,288 59,879 54,640 38,560
<br />133,366 179,890 178,688 183,969 108,380 215,238 183,635 142,270
<br />0.8% 4.0% 1.9% 4.4% 4.3% 3.3% 9.7% 0.8%
<br />8.0% 7.0% 14.0% 9.9% 2.9% 5.0% 1.6% 1.3%
<br />31.1% 28.3% 28.5% 28.2% 27.9% 27.8% 29.8% 27.1%
<br />t Rojeded household growth figure has been revised downward from Md Coundl forecast of 5,000 to account for recent development trends that have been
<br />dower than anticipated.
<br />Note: Northwest Metro oonsstsof wesem Anoka County, suburban Hennepin County north of 1-394, Sierburne County, and Wight County.
<br />Sources U.S Census Metropolitan Council; Minnesota Sate Demographer; Wsoondn Sate Comographer
<br />Housing Demand Breakdown
<br />2007-2010
<br />Housing demand through the end of the current decade will be strongly impacted by the current slow
<br />down in the for -sale market. This is already affecting the pace of construction, which will likely result in
<br />a substantially lower number of new households by 2010 than what was forecasted by the Metropolitan
<br />Council. Therefore, it is forecasted that the market will support development of between 350 and 400
<br />new residential units from 2007 through 2009.
<br />The majority of the new housing will continue to be owner -occupied homes, but an increasing share (up
<br />to 25%) will be renter -occupied housing. This will be a change from Ramsey's past development
<br />patterns, which included mostly owner -occupied housing. Projected increases in the development of
<br />rental housing is largely attributed to a growing demand for senior housing and the attractiveness of
<br />City of Ramsey 2030 Comprehensive Plan Appendix A-24
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