Agenda - Planning Commission - 09/04/2014

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August 22, 2014 Metropolitan Council Attn: Dennis Farmer 390 Robert Street N St. Paul, MN 55101-1805 RE: Draft 2020 and 2030 Forecasts for City of Ramsey Dear Mr. Farmer: Thank you for the opportunity to review the draft forecasts for the City of Ramsey for the years 2020 and 2030. On April 19, 2014, the City of Ramsey responded to the final draft of Thrive MSP 2040. In our response, we noted that our Future Land Use Map has the capacity to be consistent with the draft 2040 forecasts. However, our response goes on to note that we were not convinced that this growth will be experienced under current infrastructure capacity. We noted two (2) broad categories that were of concern to Ramsey that would ultimately impact future growth: 1. Transportation 2. Water Supply As it relates to the draft Transportation Policy Plan, Ramsey is extremely encouraged to see the Armstrong included, but we believe the TPP to be short on overall improvements to U.S. Highway 10 through the cities of Ramsey and Anoka. With that in mind, we would expect a sharp drop-off in future growth during the current planning period without future investment in regional transportation. At this point, we do not have sufficient data or traffic modeling to understand the point in which this drop off would occur. As the Metropolitan Council is aware, the Minnesota Department of Transportation has initiated the Highway 10 Access Planning Study, set to be completed later this year (2014). Ramsey strongly requests that this study be in.orpurutcd into the 2040 Transportation Policy Plan. Without these safety and mobility improvements, Ramsey is sure not to experience the forecasted growth as presented by the Metropolitan Council. As it relates to the water supply equation, we cannot respond at this time as the Water Resources Policy Plan has not been released for comment. We would expect a sharp drop-off in future growth starting in the year 2020 unless a regional solution to water supply is addressed. This is based on recalibrated forecasted growth and remaining capacity of existing public water supply wells. 2020 Forecast Ramsey's current household estimate is 8,367 households through April 1, 2013. Since that date, according to City permit data, the City has approved 259 new households since that date. Applying at 3.2% vacancy rate (Source: U.S. Census) to the 259 new households approved, we would estimate our current households at 8,618 (through August 22, 2014). In order to achieve the forecasted 9,100 households by 2020, an average of 75 new households per year would need to occur. This forecasts appears reasonable.