Agenda - Council Work Session - 12/09/2014

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7550 Sunwood Drive NW • Ramsey, Minnesota 55303 City Hall: 763-427-1410 • Fax: 763-427-5543 www.cityoframsey.com September 24, 2014 Metropolitan Council Attn: Dennis Farmer 390 Robert Street N St. Paul, MN 55101-1805 RE: Draft 2020 and 2030 Forecasts for City of Ramsey Dear Mr. Farmer: Thank you for the opportunity to review the draft forecasts for the City of Ramsey for the years 2020 and 2030. In April, 2014, the City of Ramsey responded to the final draft of Thrive MSP 2040. In our response, we noted that our Future Land Use Map has the capacity to be consistent with the draft 2040 forecasts. However, our response goes on to note that we were not convinced that this growth will be experienced under current infrastructure capacity. We noted two (2) broad categories that were of concern to Ramsey that would ultimately impact future growth: 1. Transportation 2. Water Supply As it relates to the draft Transportation Policy Plan, Ramsey is extremely encouraged to see the Armstrong Interchange included, but we believe the Transportation Policy Plan needs to better emphasize U.S. Highway 10 through the cities of Ramsey and Anoka, especially in light of the Highway 10 Access Planning Study. Without proper investment in this corridor, we would expect a sharp drop-off in future growth during the current planning period. At this point, we do not have sufficient data or traffic modeling to understand the point in which this drop off would occur. As the Metropolitan Council is aware, the Minnesota Department of Transportation has initiated the Highway 10 Access Planning Study, set to be completed later this year (2014). Ramsey strongly requests that this study be incorporated into the 2040 Transportation Policy Plan to a greater degree. Additionally, Highway 47 continues to be an area that needs to be addressed. Without these safety and mobility improvements, Ramsey is sure not to experience the forecasted growth as presented by the Metropolitan Council. As it relates to water supply, we cannot respond at this time as the Water Resources Policy Plan has not been released for comment. We would expect a sharp drop-off in future growth between the years 2020 and 2030 unless a regional solution to water supply is addressed. This is based on recalibrated forecasted growth and remaining capacity of existing public water supply wells. 2020 Forecast Ramsey's current household estimate is 8,367 households through April 1, 2013. Since that date, according to City permit data, the City has approved 259 new households. Applying at 3.2% vacancy rate (Source: U.S. Census) to the 259 new households approved, we would estimate our current households at 8,618 (through