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i I I I '1 I I I I ! I I I I I i I PrOjeCting Ramsey's local aid for 1983-1986 is very difficult because ~tl~de~ends so much on the formula that tends to change from year to ~e~r, ;and how much the State appropriates for local aid. Under the pr~ese~t formula, the amount Ramsey may receive in 1983 beyond the mi~imu~ will depend on whether there are any funds left after calcu- latin~ all the other communities' minimums. Due to this uncertainty, the lqcal aid projection for Ramsey is based on the assumption that its local aid will increase by 7.~% per year from 1982-1986, which is the percentage that the Statewide appropriation for local aid will increase from 1982-1983. 3. Other Revenue The other revenue categories show no trends as to whether they are in~rea~ing or decreasing, so for projection purposes, they are assumed t0 remain at a constant level over the next five years. Since Ramsey is abo6t to begin to provide sewer and water services, the revenue de~ive~ from the user charges will be a new category to be added to the~:op~rating budget. For projection purposes, however, it has been assume~ that the user charge revenue will equal the operating expen- ditures, and will have no impact on the projected revenue surplus or deficit. 4. Sun~,ar~ of Operating Revenue Projections ; The leg. y limit base and other revenue projections are added to get thelopgrating revenue projections by year for each of the population growth Tassu~ptions. Ope ra.t.i~ . ~xpen di t ure Projections The opeNati~ng expenditures by category from 1978-1981 were analyzed to determihe ~he rate of growth. During the period when population was growing. 7.4% per year, expenditures grew by 20% per year. Some of this growthr Was idue to inflation, some due to the greater numbers of people to rec~ve iCity eel-vices, and some was due to the expansion and improvement of ser~lce~ as Ramsey was becom~ing more ur'ban in character. The two budget categories [that increased fasted were public safety averaging 30% per year and Partes c~eration and maintenance at 65.3%. The large percentage for parks is sc~. ewhat due to the small base from which it started. The high, m~dium, and low expenditure projections were made in the follow- ing man~er~!i It was assumed that 8% of the annual increase had been and would COntiDue to be due to inflation, the rest of the increase was assu!n, ed to be due t.~ population growth and the increased service levels that an urbanizing populatxon demands. For the high projections, the same rate of increase~ from 1978-1981 for each budget category was continued for 1983-1986, ~ince the inflation rate and population growth rate, and ex- pansion ~of ~ervices would also continue. For the medium and low projec- tions, t~ne growth rate for each category was reduced proportionately, after allowing for an 8% inflation rate.