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DRAFT <br /> <br /> CHAPTER II I <br />,, <br />'AVIATION' NEEDS ASSESSMENT <br /> <br />DRAFT <br /> <br />PURPOSE <br /> <br />The purpose of this chapter is to identify the aviation-related needs of the <br />west metro area and to determine the extent to which those needs can be met by <br />different aviation system development alternatives. <br /> <br />Three basic alternatives have been identified, ranging from making no <br />improvements beyond those already progran~ned for the airports system to <br />constructing a new general~aviation field in Search Area A. Each alternative <br />will be'assessed according~to.physical and service capabilities, and policy <br />considerations to determine which system development option should be pursued. <br /> <br />TRENDS AND FORECASTS FOR GENERAL AVIATION <br /> <br />TRENDS <br /> <br />In recent years, the general aviation industry has undergone substantial <br />structural changes. The long-term growth of the active fleet and <br />activity appears to be slowing due to a number of factors, although general <br />aviation's importance for business-related transportation continues to grow. <br />This section describes many of the important trends, which were considered in <br />the development of the forecasts used in this study. <br /> <br />- Aging General Aviation Fleet <br /> <br />Over 25 percent of the current aircraft fleet in Minnesota will be more <br />than 45 years old by ~the year 2010. However, many older aircraft that have <br />been used infrequently and well-maintained will still be air-worthy at that <br />time. The cost of upkeep, the potential unavailability of spare parts and <br />the possible need for improved instrumentation ("avionics") will likely <br />cause a reduction in size of the active fleet if the aircraft owners do not <br />replace their older planes. <br /> <br />- Slower Growth for Pilot Population <br /> <br />Increased training costs, rising aircraft ownership and operation costs, <br />and the increased complexity of air traffic control have contributed to a <br />steady.decline in student pilot registrations (about 7 percent annually <br />between 1979 and 198~). This trend, coupled with a reduction in pilots <br />formerly in military~service since the end of the Vietnam War and the aging <br />of the Korean and World War II era pilots decreases the likelyhood of <br />continued strong growth in general aviation participation, although the <br />trend is somewhat moderated by increasing discretionary income that permits <br />a portion of the population to participate. <br /> <br />- Increased Ownership, Operation and Maintenance Costs <br /> <br />General aviation has experienced a tremendous cost increase. Product <br />liability insurance increases have forced manufacturers to dramatically <br />increase prices to levels that, in effect, have closed the new aircraft <br /> <br /> <br />