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FORECASTS The forecasting procedure consists of first projecting the total number of aircraft (by type) in diffe'rent parts of the region and then allocating them to individual airports. These forecasts are used as a foundation to determine many elements of future airport requirements such as storage and operational capacity, Aviation demand models are useful planning tools but it should be recognized that they are not necessarily complete. They attempt to reduce a large and unpredictable system to a relatively few mathematical equations that describe important interactions. The accuracy and reliability of a forecasting model largely depends on the assumptions on which it rests. A major problem in forecasting is differentiating among relationships that will persist and those that will not. For this reason, the future trends discussed above were considered in conjunction with past historical trends for general aviation in the region and assumptions were drawn that are used in the forecasts. Assumptions The major assumptions are: me Single engine aircraft will continue to dominate Minnesota's aN'iation fleet. The ratio of single engine to multi-engine aircraft will remain at current level s. The increase in Corporate flying will be proportional to the increase in manufacturing and retail employment and business services related employment. No drastic changes in fuel costs or supply are anticipated during the forecast period. More than 60% of the aging single aircraft have ex'tended airframe life left and therefore will still be available for active use during the planning period. Forecast Methods Three different forecasting techniques were used: Simple trend analysis. Continuation of current aircraft ownership levels. Multiple regression analysis. The data used in the forecasts (and their sources) were as follows: 1. 1983 Aircraft Registration File (Mn/DOT) 2. Socio-economic Data Forecasts (Metro Council) 3. 1985 Pilot Registration File (FAA) 4. Mn/DOT Aircraft Owners Survey (Mn/DOT) 5. Historical Data on Based Aircraft from MAC (MAC) Forecast Results Each of the forcasts methods and the results are discussed below and shown graphically in Figure !.