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DRAFT Trends Affecting General Aviation Growth Q~~~ 1. Introduction In recent years, the general aviation industry has undergone substantial structural changes. Theae changes indicate that, at the national level, the long-term growth of the active fleet and activity may be slowing. Hany experts in the field say ;that high aircraft prices, changing tastes and preferenees~ availability of ultra light and high operating costs are mostly responsible for this. Still others mention that tax legislation and increasing product liability insurance costs are responsible. To be sure, each one of these factors has had some effect on the general aviation industry. At the regional level, trends in overall economy are creating some changes in the industry~ Over the past several year~, ~eneral aviation has become increasingly important as a means of transportation for business use. Events which have contributed to this are the increasing pace of commerce and value of time~ business dispersion~ centralized management and tax legislation. This memo looks at some major trends that affect the growth of-general aviation activity. The conclusions derived from examining these trends will be used in developing assumptions which will later be used in the forecasting process. 2. Trends in Fleet CompoSition and Aircraft Usease (2,3,4,5) The Minnesota general aviation fleet has remained approximately 2% of the national total. It contains a higher percentage of single engine aircraft than is found nationally. Singles account for 91% of total aircraft and this has remained fairly constant over the years (Table 1). Table 1 Trends in Distribution of Aircrafts by Type Aircraft Type 1977 1981 1984 Single Engine (SE) 91% 91.3% 91.2% Multi-Engine (ME) 6 5.5 5.5 Turbo-Prop (TP) 1 1.1 1.1 Turbo-Jet (TJ) 1 1.1 1.2 Other 1 1.0 1.0 Total 100 100 100 Also, more than 85% of all. aircraft used for personal/pleasure flying, business use, aerial application and flight instruction are single engine aircraft (Table 2). Almost 60% of all aircrafts used in corporate flying are turbo props and turbo jets.