Agenda - Council - 06/28/2016 - Laserfiche WebLink

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ANOKA COUNTY HOUSING STUDY CONCLUSIONS households. Demand is also affected by shifting demographic factors such as the aging of the population, which dictates the type of housing preferred. New housing to meet replacement needs is required, even in the absence of household growth, when existing units no longer meet the needs of the population and when renovation is not feasible because the structure is physically or functionally obsolete. These three factors — household growth, replacement need, and demographic changes — impact housing need in Anoka County and are considered in the following demand analysis. It should be emphasized that to the extent that households are mobile and different market segments are willing to seek out various housing products in adjacent submarkets, or even outside the County, the demand figures presented herein may experience fluctuations between submarkets. Higher mobility is especially common among senior households who move to be near healthcare, retail, services, and family members. Adjustments for mobility (referred to as migration patterns) have been factored into the demand calculations by submarket for senior housing products. General Occupancy Housing Demand Table E-1 shows demand calculations for general occupancy housing in Anoka County by submarket between 2010 and 2020. The following details the demand methodology used to derive these figures: • The primary source of housing demand in Anoka County submarkets will be from projected household growth. Over the next decade, Anoka County overall is projected to add 18,670 households. • A segment of total household growth will be among senior -aged household that comprise the target market for senior housing products. Demand calculations for senior housing units are presented in Table E-2 and are deducted from the market potential for general occupancy housing. Based on the calculations, Anoka County is estimated to need 2,275 units of senior housing over the next decade, which leaves 16,395 units remaining to accommodate general occupancy households. • In addition to household growth, additional demand will be generated from the replacement needs of the existing housing stock that has become functionally or physically obsolete, including both for -sale homes and rental complexes. It is estimated that 0.5% of all homes that are 50 years and older (built before 1960) will need to be replaced on an annual basis. The annual replacement need, multiplied by the ten years considered in this demand analysis, equates to an additional need for 1,770 general occupancy housing units through 2020. • Considering both household growth (less senior households) and housing replacement needs, Anoka County is calculated to need an additional 18,165 general occupancy housing units over the next decade. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 107