Agenda - Planning Commission - 09/01/2016

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Demographic Characteristics Demographic characteristics for the Ramsey Station Draw Area, Northstar Corridor Draw Area, and Metropolitan Area are summarized in the demographic snapshots contained in Tables 6-5, 6- 6, and 6-7 on the following pages. These snapshots contain census data for 2000, as well as estimates for 2011 and 2016. These estimates were provided by Scan/US, Inc., a source of Census comparable demographic information. Significant characteristics of Ramsey Station Draw Area include the following: ♦ Ramsey Station Draw Area estimated median age is 36 in 2016, which is lower than both the Northstar Corridor Draw Area and the Metropolitan Area with median ages in both areas at 37 in 2016. ♦ Ramsey Station Draw Area population is estimated to increase at 0.75 percent annually between 2011 and 2016, which is similar both the Northstar Corridor Draw Area and the Metropolitan Area annual population growth rates of 0.94 and 0.71 percent, respectively. ♦ In 2011, approximately 30.2 percent of the population in the Ramsey Station Draw Area was under the age of 19. By 2016, the Ramsey Station Draw Area is expected to have approximately 29.3 percent of the population under the age of 19, which is higher than both the Northstar Corridor Draw Area and Metropolitan Area percentages of 28.8 and 26.9 percent, respectively. ♦ In 2011, approximately 9.4 percent of the population in the Ramsey Station Draw Area was over the age of 65, which is expected to increase to about 11.3 percent by 2016. The Northstar Corridor Draw Area had 9.1 percent over age 65 in 2011 and an estimated 10.9 percent for 2016; while the Metropolitan Area had 10.7 percent of the population over the age of 65 in 2011, with expectations of an increase to 12.3 percent by 2016. ♦ By 2016, over 50 percent of the households within the Ramsey Station Draw Area will have incomes above $75,000. ♦ Over 90 percent of the population within the Ramsey Station Draw Area is Caucasian, which is expected to remain constant through 2016. Additional demographic characteristics for the Ramsey Station Draw Area are contained in Appendix A. STATION AREA SALES POTENTIAL Retail sales potential represented by Northstar riders at the Ramsey station is based on estimated purchasing power of the average 129 weekday rides. These riders represent about 1.0 percent of the 13,522 Ramsey Station Draw Area households in 2011. Draw area households are estimated to increase to 14,197 in 2016, an increase of 0.98 percent. Estimated retail and service sales potential of Northstar riders is a two-step process. Estimated sales potential of Northstar riders for each retail or service category is estimated by McComb Group proprietary sales potential model, which contains over 120 retail and service categories. Next, store size is determined based on sales productivity and typical store size for each category. This methodology is illustrated for 2016 in Table 6-8 using convenience goods stores as an example to illustrate the amount of retail and service space that can be supported by Northstar riders. 6-6