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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br /> ceeds from the sale of the home could produce an extra $630 per month that could be used <br /> almost dollar for dollar for alternative housing. (This figure is calculated by subtracting mar- <br /> keting costs, estimated at 7%, from the proceeds from the sale of the home and using the in- <br /> terest income, estimated at 4%, toward monthly rent). <br /> • Including households who would income-qualify with the proceeds from a home sale (those <br /> households with incomes of between$15,000 and$25,000), we estimate the number of <br /> age/income-qualified senior households in the PMA in 2005 at about 7,150, increasing to <br /> about 9,4109 in 2010. <br /> TABLE 26 <br /> MARKET RATE"ADULT"/FEW-SERVICES SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND <br /> RAMSEY PMA <br /> 2005&2010 <br /> 7158 e of Householder A e of Householder4 65-74 75+ 55-64 65-74 75+#of Households in PMA w/Incomes of$15,000 to$25,000' 279 364 186 343 406 <br /> (times)Homeownership Rate x 92% 82% 49% 92% 82% 49% <br /> (equals)Potential Market = 145 229 178 = 171 281 199 <br /> (plus)#of Households w/Incomes of$25,000+' + 4,208 1,637 755 5,524 2,310 924 <br /> (equals)Total Potential Market Base = 4,353 1,866 933 = 5,695 2,591 1,123 <br /> (times)Short-Term Capture Rate x 0.5% 8.0% 12.0% x 0.5% 8.0% 12.0% <br /> (equals)Short-Term Demand Potential = 22 149 112 = 28 207 135 <br /> Total Market Rate Demand Potential = 283 49 = 371 49 <br /> Owner Rental Owner Rental <br /> (times)%for housing w/services&w/o services x 60% x 40% x 60% x 40% <br /> (equals)Demand potential = 170 = 113 = 222 = 148 <br /> (plus)Demand from Outside PMA(20%) + 42 + 28 + 56 + 37 <br /> (equals)Total Demand Potential = 212 = 142 = 278 = 185 <br /> (minus)Existing/Pending Competitive Units - 76 55 - 76 - 55 <br /> (equals)Excess Demand in PMA = 136 = 87 = 202 = 130 <br /> (times)%of Demand Capturable by Ramsey - 30% 30% - 30% - 30% <br /> (equals)Excess Demand in Ramsey = 41 = 39 <br /> 1 2010 income-qualified figures adjusted for inflation($29,500 or more+homeowners w/me.of$23,500-$29,500) <br /> 2 Rental units account for a 5%vacancy factor and include one-quarter of the congregate/optional-service units to account for <br /> market overlap. <br /> Source: Maxfield Research Inc. <br /> • Adjusting to include appropriate capture rates (ranging in 2005 from 0.5% of households age <br /> 55 to 64 to 12.0% of households age 75 and older) for each age cohort, results in local de- <br /> MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 54 <br />