Agenda - Planning Commission - 09/01/2016

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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS mand potential for all types of independent senior housing of about 280 units in 2005 and about 370 units in 2010. • Based on recent trends in preference, we project that 60% of this demand is for ownership products and 40% will be for renter products, or 170 and about 115 units, respectively, in 2005. By 2010, we project the same percentage of demand, resulting in demand for 220 ownership units and 150 renter units. • Additional demand will come from outside the PMA. We estimate this to represent 20% of the total demand generated by PMA seniors. Together, the demand from Market Area sen- iors and demand from seniors who would relocate to the Market Area totals 210 ownership units and 140 rental units 2005. • From this total, the existing and pending market rate rental units in the PMA are subtracted (minus a 5%vacancy rate for rental communities). Subtracting existing competitive units re- sults in excess local demand for 136 ownership units and 87 renter units in 2005. Using the same methodology, and accounting for pending senior communities (there were none identi- fied), demand is projected to increase to about 200 ownership units and 120 renter units. • No one community or location would be able to capture all of the projected demand. We es- timate that a community in Ramsey could capture 30% of the owner demand and 30% of the renter demand, or 41 ownership units and 24 renter units in 2005. We estimate that by 2010, the City of Ramsey could capture the same percentage of the local demand for both ownership and rental senior housing, or 60 ownership units and 35 renter units. Affordable Senior Housing Table 27 on the following page presents our demand calculations for affordable, independent senior housing. In order to arrive at the potential age-income qualified base for affordable independent senior housing, we have included all older adult and senior households who rent with incomes of $25,000 to $30,000. Then, we add households with incomes of between $15,000 and $25,000, plus the households with incomes below$15,000 that own their own homes. This gives us an es- timated 1,020 age/income-qualified older adult and senior households in the PMA in 2005. Adjusting to include appropriate capture rates for each age cohort (12.0 percent of households 65 to 74, and 18.0 percent of households age 75 and older)results in a local demand potential for approximately 160 affordable independent senior units. We estimate that 25% of the demand for affordable independent senior housing in Ramsey will be generated by seniors currently residing outside the PMA. This demand will consist primarily of parents of adult children living in the Market Area, individuals who live just outside the Mar- ket Area and have an orientation to the area, as well as former residents who desire to return. Together, when the demand from area seniors is added to the demand from seniors who would MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 55