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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br /> relocate to the Market Area results in a total unmet demand for 210 affordable independent sen- <br /> ior units as of 2005. <br /> We then subtract the existing competitive units (minus a 5%vacancy rate); this produces a total <br /> demand for the Ramsey Market Area of 150 affordable senior units for 2005. Applying the same <br /> demand methodology to the 2010 older adult and senior household base projections, and ac- <br /> counting for the pending Lake George senior housing, shows that the net demand for affordable <br /> adult housing will remain the same at 150 units in 2010. <br /> We project the amount of demand capturable by a community in Ramsey to be 45% of the ex- <br /> cess senior rental demand, resulting in affordable senior rental demand of 67 units in 2005 <br /> and remaining steady through 2010. <br /> TABLE 27 <br /> AFFORDABLE INDEPENDENT SENIOR RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND <br /> RAMSEY PMA <br /> 2005&2010 <br /> 65-74 75+ 65-74 75+ <br /> Number of Renters w/Incomes of$25-30K 26 53 34 89 <br /> (plus)Number of Households w/Incomes of$15-25K1 279 364 314 379 <br /> (plus)Number of Owners w/Incomes of<$15,0001 143 157 194 192 <br /> (equals)Total Potential Market Base = 448 574 = 542 660 <br /> (times)Potential Capture Rate = 12.0% 18.0% x 12.0% 18.0% <br /> (equals)Potential Demand 54 + 103 = 65 + 119 <br /> Total Local Demand Potential 157 184 <br /> (plus)Demand from Outside PMA(25%) 52 61 <br /> (equals)Total Demand Potential 209 245 <br /> (minus)Existing/Pending Competitive UnitsZ 61 96 <br /> (equals)Total Affordable Senior Housin Demand 148 149 <br /> (times)Percent of Demand Capturable in Ramsey 45% 45% <br /> (equals)Total Demand Capturable in Ramsey 67 67 <br /> 1 Income-qualified base was adjusted to account for inflation. 2010 figures account for renter households with incomes of$29.5- <br /> $35K,plus all household with incomes of$17,500 to$29,500 plus all households with incomes less than$17,500 who own their <br /> homes. <br /> 2Competitive unit counts reflect a 5%vacancy rate,and include two-thirds of Savannah Oaks and Lake George,since these two <br /> communities have higher income limits than our demand calculation income-qualified range. <br /> Source: Maxfield Research Inc. <br /> MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 56 <br />