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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br /> Subsidized Senior Housing <br /> In general, most senior households with incomes in excess of$25,000, and senior homeowners <br /> with incomes of$15,000 or more can afford market rate senior housing without financial assis- <br /> tance and do not need subsidized housing. Subsequently, seniors with incomes less than$15,000 <br /> and seniors with incomes between$15,000 and$25,000 who currently rent their housing are <br /> candidates for subsidized housing. Based on these factors, we estimate demand for subsidized <br /> senior housing in Ramsey as shown in Table 28. <br /> • The table shows a total potential market base for subsidized senior housing of 500 house- <br /> holds in the Ramsey PMA in 2005. Not all of the age/income-qualified senior households <br /> will need or want subsidized housing, however. We estimate that 50% of the market base <br /> will need or want subsidized senior housing, while the remainder may seek an affordable <br /> product, or remain in their single-family home or rent a general-occupancy apartment. Using <br /> this capture rate, demand exists for 250 subsidized senior housing units in the PMA. <br /> • Subtracting the 200 existing units results in excess demand for 50 units in the PMA. We pro- <br /> ject that a subsidized community in Ramsey would capture 45% of the remaining demand, <br /> for a total demand of 20 units of subsidized senior housing in the City of Ramsey in <br /> 2005. <br /> • Adjusting for inflation, we have estimated that households with incomes of$17,500 or less <br /> and homeowners with incomes of$17,500 to $29,500 would qualify for subsi- <br /> dized/affordable independent senior housing in 2010. Considering the growth in the older <br /> adult base, and applying our 45% capture rate for a community in Ramsey, our methodology <br /> projected that there will be an excess demand for 50 subsidized rental units by 2010. <br /> TABLE 28 <br /> SUBSIDIZED SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND <br /> RAMSEY PMA <br /> January 2006 <br /> Age/Income-Qualified Market: 2005 2010 <br /> Senior Households(65+)in the PMA w/incomes below$15,000 495 628 <br /> (times)%of market base needing/wanting low-income housing x 50% 50% <br /> (equals) Subsidized/affordable senior housing demand = 248 314 <br /> (minus)Existing occupied subsidized units - 201 201 <br /> (equals)Excess long-term demand = 47 113 <br /> (times)%which a rental community in Ramsey can capture x 45% 45% <br /> Total Demand in the City of Ramsey = 21 1 <br /> 1 2010 income-qualified figures adjusted for inflation($20K or less+homeowners w/inc.of S17.5-29.5K) <br /> Source: Maxfield Research Inc. <br /> MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 57 <br />