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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />relocate to the Market Area results in a total unmet demand for 210 affordable independent sen- <br />ior units as of 2005. <br />We then subtract the existing competitive units (minus a 5% vacancy rate); this produces a total <br />demand for the Ramsey Market Area of 150 affordable uAdts for 2005. Applying the same <br />demand methodology to the 2010 older adult and senior household base projections, and ac- <br />counting for the pending Lake George senior housing, shows that the net demand for affordable <br />adult housing will remain the same at 150 units in 2010. <br />We project the amount of demand capturable by a community in Ramsey to be 45% of the ex- <br />cess senior rental demand, resulting in affordable senior rental demand of 67 units in 2005 <br />and remaining steady through 2010. <br />TABLE 27 <br />AFFORDABLE I1NDEPENDL1N 1 SEA RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND <br />RAMSEY PMA <br />2005 & 2010 <br />65-74 75+ <br />Number of Renters w/ Incomes of $25-30K 26 53 <br />(plus) Number of jlouseholds w/ Incomes of $15-25K1 <br />(plus) Number of Owners w/ Incomes of < $15,0001 <br />(equals)Total Potential Market Base <br />279 <br />364 <br />2010 <br />65-74 <br />34 <br />75+ <br />89 <br />314 379 <br />143 157 194 192 <br />448 574 I = 542 660 <br />(times) Potential Capture Rate = 12.0% 18.0% x 12.0% 18.0% <br />(equals) Potential Demand 54 + 103 = 65 + 119 <br />Total Local Demand Potential 157 184 <br />(plus) Demand from Outside PMA (25%) 52 61 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential 209 245 <br />(minus) Existing/Pending Competitive Units <br />tc uals) Total Affordable Senior Housing Demand <br />(times) Percent of Demand Capturable in Ramsey <br />(equals) Total Demand Capturable in Ramsey <br />61 <br />148 <br />45% <br />67 <br />96 <br />149 <br />45% <br />67 <br />1 Income -qualified base was adjusted to account for inflation. 2010 figures account for renter households with incomes of $29.5- <br />$35K, plus all household with incomes of $17,500 to $29,500 plus all households with incomes less than $17,500 who own their <br />homes. <br />2Competitive unit counts reflect a 5% vacancy rate, and include two-thirds of Savannah Oaks and Lake George, since these two <br />communities have higher income limits than our demand calculation income -qualified range. <br />Source: Maxfield Research Inc. <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH C. 56 <br />