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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS Subsidized Senior Housing In general, most senior households with incomes in excess of $25,000, and senior homeowners with incomes of $15,000 or more can afford market rate senior housing without financial assis- tance and do not need subsidized housing. Subsequently, seniors with incomes less than $15,000 and seniors with incomes between $15,000 and $25,000 who currently rent their housing are candidates for subsidized housing. Based on these factors, we estimate demand for subsidized senior housing in Ramsey as shown in Table 28. • The table shows a total potential market base for subsidized senior housing of 500 house- holds in the Ramsey PMA in 2005. Not all of the age/income-qualified senior households will need or want subsidized housing, however. We estimate that 50% of the market base will need or want subsidized senior housing, while the remainder may seek an affordable product, or remain in their single-family home or rent a general -occupancy apartment. Using this capture rate, demand exists for 250 subsidized senior housing units in the PMA. • Subtracting the 200 existing units results in excess demand for 50 units in the PMA. We pro- ject that a subsidized community in Ramsey would capture 45% of the remaining demand, for a total demand of 20 units of subsidized senior housing in the City of Ramsey in 2005. • Adjusting for inflation, we have estimated that households with incomes of $17,500 or less and homeowners with incomes of $17,500 to $29,500 would qualify for subsi- dized/affordable independent senior housing in 2010. Considering the growth in the older adult base, and applying our 45% capture rate for a community in Ramsey, our methodology projected that there will be an excess demand for 50 subsidized rental units by 2010. TABLE 28 SUBSIDIZED SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND RAMSEY PMA January 2006 Age/Income-Qualified Market: Senior Households (65+) in the PMA w/incomes below $15,000 2005 2010 495 628 (times) % of market base needing/wanting low-income housing x 50% 50% (equals) Subsidized/affordable senior housing demand (minus) Existing occupied subsidized units 248 314 201 201 (equals) Excess long-term demand = 47 113 (times) % which a rental community in Ramsey can capture x 45% 45% Total Demand in the City of Ramsey 1 21 51 1 2010 income -qualified figures adjusted for inflation ($20K or less + homeowners w/ inc. of $17.5 - 29.5K) Source: Maxfield Research Inc. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 57