Agenda - Council - 07/27/2004 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Technical Memorandum #1: General Transit Demand Study April 2004 figure constitutes the "total market population" for commuter transit services in the Ramsey market area. Next, we assigned a city to each Census Block Group in the market area. For each city, we collected 2000 population data from the Census Bureau and 2010 through 2020 population figures from the Metropolitan Council. Using information collected from.the Travel BehaviOr Inventory (TBI), we estimated the number of people who will work in downtown Minneapolis in 2004 and forecasted these figures to 2010 and 2020. Using these figures, we then used a range of "transit mode split" figures to estimate the demand for commute-oriented transit service in 2000, 2004, 2010 and 2020. The transit mode split is simply the estimated number of the "total market population" who would use transit to get to work. Using a variable mode split allows us to estimate transit demand based on the level of transit service that is provided. In other words, as the transit service level improves, so too will the percent of commuters who choose to use transit. Table 3 summarizes our demand estimates: Table 3. Estimated Commute Transit Demand in Ramsey; 2000, 2004, 2010 and 2020 Transit Mode Split Year 5% lO% 15% 20% 2000 84 168 253 337 2004 117 233 350 466 2010 165 330 495 660 2020 255 511 766 1,021 Source: US Census Bureau, LSA Design Inc. Based on ridership forecasts made for the Northstar commuter Rail and current ridership on the Northstar Commuter Coach, we estimate that between 2004 and 2010, the 5% mode split is probably the most likely scenario for commuter transit'demand in Ramsey. By 2020, however, the commuter transit demand will depend greatly on whether the Northstar Commuter Rail line is built, the level of traffic congestion, the price of gasoline and parking conditions in downtown Minneapolis. Therefore, depending on future conditions, it would not be unreasonable to estimate the transit mode split to downtown Minneapolis as high as 10 or 15 percent, resulting in a much higher demand for commuter transit in the future. Finally, we estimate the number of park and ride spaces that would be required in the Ramsey Town Center based on these demand estimates. Assuming not every person would drive alone to a park and ride station (this includes people who carpool, walk or bike to the station), we estimate that the ratio of transit users to park and ride spaces is 1.25. Table 4 presents our estimates for park and ride spaces in Ramsey for 2000, 2004, 2010 and 2020. Again, we believe that the 5 percent mode split is the most likely scenario through 2010, while the presence of the Northstar Commuter Rail line by 2020 would improve the transit mode split. 7