Agenda - Council - 07/27/2004 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Technical Memorandum #1' General Transit Demand Study April 2004 Table 4. Estimated Park and Ride Demand in Ramsey; 2000, 2004, 2010 and 2020 Transit Mode Split Year 5% lO% 15% - 20% 2000 67 135 202 269- 2004 93 186 280 373 2010 132 264 396 528 2020 204 409 613 817 Source: LSA Design IFc. Local Transit Demand As mentioned earlier, the market for commuter transit services and local transit services are different. Unlike commuter transit demand, local transit demand should consider the population and employment density in a particular area - in this case t;he city of Ramsey. Local transit trips are usually composed of non-work trips (i.e., school, shopping, etc.), local work trips and trips made by elderly and disabled people. In addition, a large number of local transit trips are walk-up users rather than commuters using park and ride services. Because the Anoka Traveler currently provides demand responsive service to residents of Anoka, this demand estimate will only focus on the local work and non-work trips. ' To estimate the number of local transit trips, we use the total population in Ramsey, a standard transit mode split figure for suburban areas and an estimated number of one-way trips per person, per day. Although the transit mode split can vary from city to city, we conservatively estimate that 1.5 percent of all trips would be made on transit in Ramsey if transit service were available. For comparison purposes, in 2000, the transit mode split (for all trips) was 3.2 percent in Anoka, 2.2 percent in Andover and 0.3 percent in Elk River. In addition~ data from the 2000 Travel Behavior Inventory (conducted by the Metropolitan Council) revealed that for the 7-County Metro Area, the transit mode split (throughout the day) was 2.3 percent. In 2000, the total population in Ramsey was 18,510. Multiplying this figure by an estimated 3.5 trips per day for 250 days results in approximately 16,196,250 trips per year. Multiplying this figure by a 1.5 percent transit mode split.results in 242,944 transit trips per year. Dividing this figure by 250 days equals approximately 971 trar~sit trips per day. Dividing this figure by 3.5 trips per day, results in an estimated 277 people who would use transit in a day. To estimate the demand for local transit service, we must subtract the estimated number of commuter transit trips that were estimated earlier. Assuming a 10 percent transit mode split for Ramsey residents only, approximately 100 people would use commuter transit each day in 2000. Therefore, we estimate the local transit demand to be: 277 (Total estimated transit users per day) - 100 (estimated commuter transit use~§~;r day) = 177 (local transit users per day). !?~ ??: !!3. It should be noted that the estimated number of local transit use"~':~:er:~¢~ai~o includes those transit trips made by elderly and disabled persons. Based on limi~;~.d~in¢0rmation regarding ridership on the Anoka Traveler, we estimate that between 50 and 75 local transit--t-r-ips are made on the Traveler each day. Subtracting the estimated number of users on the Anoka Traveler from the total estimate of local transit users, results in approximately 75-100 local transit users. In other words, we estimate that 75-100 people in Ramsey would use a local transit service (other than a demand response service) each day if a local transit service were widely avaflable.