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and building stock. We have already seen
<br />significant conversions of aging office, indus-
<br />trial, and institutional buildings into housing
<br />and redevelopment of functionally or market -
<br />obsolete commercial strip centers into a
<br />variety of other uses. So the major impact of
<br />introducing AVs may be in pressure to repur-
<br />pose existing auto -oriented buildings and
<br />land uses.
<br />For example, there is already pres-
<br />sure to convert parking garages (or parts
<br />of parking garages) to housing or commer-
<br />cial/institutional uses, and there are many
<br />examples of successful conversions. Many
<br />cities have already required that ground -
<br />floor frontages (or entire street frontages)
<br />be designed for future conversion to non -
<br />parking uses.
<br />In the future, this may expand from
<br />frontages to requirements that entire floors or
<br />structures be designed for conversion to other
<br />uses if anticipated declines in parking demand
<br />occur. And the private sector may do this on
<br />its own (without regulation) when it concludes
<br />that local off-street parking demands over-
<br />state future needs for that parking.
<br />Additionally, if a significant portion of
<br />the AV fleet is operated by shared mobility
<br />systems with cars continually circulating
<br />for optimum efficiency, the operator will
<br />presumably have those vehicles recharge (or
<br />fill up) at facilities where land and operating
<br />costs are low, which could lead to declining
<br />demand for recharging/fueling stations in
<br />high -value locations.
<br />As the AV fleet increases and (we are
<br />told) they have fewer accidents because
<br />they are more than humanly aware of
<br />where the other vehicles are, demand for
<br />auto body and repair shops could fall. If
<br />increased use of AV mobility systems leads
<br />to lower per -capita car ownership, we may
<br />see declining demand for land to accom-
<br />modate auto dealerships. In fact, however,
<br />the declining demand for this use is already
<br />well underway due to online car shopping,
<br />storefront showrooms (rather than car lots),
<br />and multistory car dealership facilities (to
<br />lower land costs). This trend is likely to con-
<br />tinue and may only be marginally impacted
<br />by the introduction of AVs.
<br />A FEW DISTURBING THOUGHTS
<br />AVs are coming, and the previous discus-
<br />sion should give planners plenty to think
<br />about in preparing for their arrival. But
<br />there will probably be some not -so -attrac-
<br />tive side effects as AVs are introduced. As
<br />we plan for AVs, planners should probably
<br />think about mitigating the following unin-
<br />tended side effects:
<br />• Potential loss of jobs. While the AV indus-
<br />try will no doubt create many new jobs,
<br />there are four million professional drivers
<br />in the U.S. today, and not all of them will
<br />keep their jobs.
<br />• Potential health impacts. The only mean-
<br />ingful exercise some Americans get is
<br />walking to and from their job to where
<br />their car is parked. Front -door drop-offs
<br />and pickups will change that.
<br />• Potential marginalization of low-income
<br />neighborhoods. Individually owned AVs
<br />are more affordable to people with more
<br />money, and AV mobility systems are also
<br />designed to make money. Without interven-
<br />tion to ensure that mobility systems serve
<br />low-income areas, they may choose not to.
<br />• Potential mobile AV -billboard "spam."
<br />What if every system -owned AV has
<br />advertising on it, and the software bal-
<br />ances driving efficiency with advertising
<br />exposure? Not a pretty picture.
<br />• Potential decreases in public transit
<br />ridership as some riders opt for an indi-
<br />vidual (rather than shared) vehicle driven
<br />by someone other than themselves.
<br />• Potential pressure for low -density sprawl
<br />development at the edges of our cities, if
<br />a substantial number of citizens decide
<br />that they don't care how long they spend
<br />in the car as long as they're not driving
<br />(which may not be as large a number as
<br />some fear).
<br />CONCLUSION
<br />The introduction of AVs will have sig-
<br />nificant impacts on our built environment,
<br />streetscapes, and mobility systems, and we
<br />really don't know the exact order in which
<br />those impacts will be felt or their intensity
<br />when they arrive. The good news is that,
<br />despite the tone of some media coverage,
<br />AVs will be introduced over time. For the
<br />foreseeable future, we will be living in and
<br />regulating cities and counties to accommo-
<br />date a mixed fleet of AV and non -AV vehicles,
<br />which will allow planners time to do what
<br />they do best —measure what is changing
<br />and design locally appropriate responses to
<br />those changes.
<br />ABOUT THE AUTHOR
<br />Donald L. Elliott, FAICP, is a director in the
<br />Denver office of Clarion Associates, a former
<br />chapter president of APA Colorado, and a
<br />former chair of the APA Planning and Law
<br />Division. As a planner and lawyer, he has
<br />assisted more than 4o North American
<br />cities and counties reform and update their
<br />zoning, subdivision, housing, and land -
<br />use regulations. He has also consulted in
<br />Canada, Russia, India, Lebanon, Mongolia,
<br />and Indonesia, and served as USAID
<br />Democracy and Governance Advisor in
<br />Uganda for two years. Elliott is the author of
<br />a Better Way to Zone and is a member of the
<br />Denver Planning Board.
<br />Cover: Photo by Waymo/Google, Inc.
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