|
'epurposing Single -Family Homes
<br />and Neighborhoods
<br />By Jeffrey Beiswenger, AICP, and Zachary Tusinger
<br />A wave of change is coming to single-family
<br />neighborhoods. Is your community ready?
<br />This edition of Zoning Practice will out-
<br />line strategies for addressing the changes
<br />that are likely to come to single-family
<br />neighborhoods nationwide, including the
<br />demographic changes that will drive housing
<br />booms in some communities and widespread
<br />vacancies in others, code enforcement tools
<br />for addressing vacant properties, strategies
<br />for reusing vacant parcels where demand
<br />for single-family homes has declined, and
<br />accommodating housing in those neighbor-
<br />hoods that are in demand.
<br />THE PAST AND FUTURE Of
<br />AMERICAN SUBURBS
<br />Dramatic demographic changes are unfolding
<br />in the United States. This will continue to have
<br />a significant impact on the nation's exist-
<br />ing and future housing supply. According to
<br />professor and demographer Arthur C. Nelson,
<br />FAICP, nearly half of all buildings that will be
<br />standing in 203o do not exist today (Nelson
<br />2013). The economic fortunes of cities will
<br />shape (and be shaped by) both the form and
<br />location of these new buildings. Employment
<br />opportunities are also changing —rapidly.
<br />From a peak in 1979, more than seven million
<br />manufacturing jobs have been lost, accord-
<br />ing to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while
<br />53 million jobs were gained in other sec-
<br />tors—including33 million service -sector jobs
<br />(Worstall 2016). In the coming decades, the
<br />rise of widespread automation is expected
<br />to bring economic upheaval. Will jobs lost to
<br />automation be replaced? And where will these
<br />jobs be located?
<br />Given this backdrop of seismic eco-
<br />nomic shifts, home -buying preferences
<br />are changing as well. Millennials are more
<br />likely to live with their parents, yet are also
<br />required to be more mobile than previous
<br />generations, given rapidly changing employ-
<br />ment prospects. Millennials are also more
<br />burdened by debt than previous generations,
<br />and are delaying their first forays into the
<br />housing market (Lerner 2017). The combi-
<br />nation of these macroeconomic and social
<br />factors will serve to create a housing -supply
<br />mismatch in the single-family home market
<br />that may result in a surplus of single-family
<br />homes by 203o and beyond.
<br />The historical context for these changes
<br />is vital to our understanding of how communi-
<br />ties are likely to evolve into the near future. In
<br />the postwar area, the demand for large neigh-
<br />borhoods of single-family homes was driven
<br />by the family formation that occurred from the
<br />silent generation (born from 1925 to 1945) as
<br />WWII ended and in the population boom that
<br />occurred afterward. Federal action in the form
<br />of large-scale highway building and the desire
<br />of this generation (and baby boomers) to own
<br />single-family homes in the suburbs fueled the
<br />expansion of suburban (and exurban) commu-
<br />nities throughout the U.S.
<br />According to a study by Arthur Nelson,
<br />the U.S. will have a surplus of approximately
<br />28 million conventional (medium- to large -
<br />lot) single-family homes by 2030. This is
<br />primarily due to changing preferences for
<br />more small -lot and attached housing units
<br />(Nelson 2(313). According to Nelson, the 2030
<br />demand will wane for conventional, large -lot
<br />homes with a demand for only 32.6 million
<br />new units. In 2011, the supply of units was
<br />already more than 60.5 million —creating
<br />a supply -demand mismatch. Meanwhile,
<br />developers may need to catch up on the
<br />construction of attached and small -lot units.
<br />Additionally, multigenerational and mul-
<br />tihousehold occupancies of single-family
<br />homes are becoming increasingly common.
<br />Few alternatives exist for those who cannot
<br />afford, or do not want, a large single-family
<br />home in the suburbs. The repurposing of
<br />single-family homes into multifamily dwell-
<br />ings, care homes, mixed use buildings,
<br />offices, and other uses is more common than
<br />ever, both with and without the appropriate
<br />zoning in place.
<br />Beyond Infitl: Changing
<br />Neighborhoods and Density
<br />As the housing market continues to heat
<br />up following the Great Recession, cities are
<br />facing new challenges. Increased housing
<br />costs, a shortage of available homes in high -
<br />demand areas, and entire generations dealing
<br />with the effects of lost income and savings are
<br />leading to new pressures on the single-family
<br />neighborhoods that once formed the back-
<br />bone of the American Dream.,A half -century
<br />slide in the number of people living under one
<br />roof has ended and is beginningto reverse,
<br />with average household sizes inching up in
<br />many states. Increased densities challenge
<br />the placid character of suburban single-family
<br />neighborhoods. Since federal and state laws
<br />limit how much cities can regulate the number
<br />of individuals living under one roof, the solu-
<br />tion must be multipronged.
<br />Not only do challenges exist in rapidly
<br />depopulating communities, but also in hot
<br />coastal regions facing housing shortages.
<br />In the near term, many cities, particularly in
<br />the coastal regions, are dealing with high
<br />demand for housing of all types, including
<br />single-family homes. Consequently, costs
<br />are through the roof, and the rate of creation
<br />of new housing units in many markets is
<br />frustratingly slow.
<br />Missing Middle Housing
<br />Part of the pressure on existing neighbor-
<br />hoods stems from the fact that in the U.S.,
<br />housing is largely constructed in two forms:
<br />large, suburban style single-family homes,
<br />and large, mid -rise apartment complexes.
<br />This gap in housing types is what is often
<br />called the "missing middle:" duplexes, four-
<br />plexes, small multiplexes, live -work units,
<br />and bungalows. Missing middle housing,
<br />if properly designed, can bridge the gap
<br />between dense mid -rise residential neigh-
<br />borhoods and lower -density, auto -oriented
<br />neighborhoods. Missing middle housing
<br />has a small footprint and medium density
<br />(but is perceived as lower), and can be walk-
<br />able. This type of housing preserves many of
<br />the community and neighborhood aspects
<br />of single-family homes, but allows for the
<br />added densities that are needed to reduce
<br />sprawl and retrofit American neighborhoods.
<br />Vancouver, British Columbia, which
<br />is currently dealing with explosive housing
<br />ZONINGPRACTICE 2.18
<br />AMERICAN PLANNING ASSOCIATION Ipage 2
<br />
|