Agenda - Parks and Recreation Commission - 08/09/2018

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home.13 The same data shows households led by Generation X (age 35-55) spend more overall dollars on food away from home than the other groups on average. Considering the median age of Ramsey is around 35, it is likely most households are led by those in the Millennial and Generation X age groups. This suggests that the city's demographics, in addition to the higher median household income level, are a positive characteristic of in terms of food expenditures at restaurants. It is worth noting that Ramsey is the major population center of the CDA that doesn't have closer access to a restaurant node. While Anoka and Coon Rapids also have large populations, they also have a large and established restaurant node and therefore unlikely that the Ramsey CDA will capture more than a fraction of their populations. Market size Based on the demographics of Ramsey and the expenditure data shown in Figure 2, we estimate Ramsey's CDA to spend approximately 1.5 times more than the national average of $3,864.39 on dining out, approximately $5,798 per household. With this assumption, we can calculate the total annual expenditure for food outside of the home in the Ramsey CDA to be about $131,603,004. The 2018 dining trend survey conducted by Zagat suggests the average cost of a restaurant meal is $36.40 per person and the average respondent dines out 6 times a week, primarily for lunch and dinner. If we assume similar numbers for Ramsey, we estimate the Ramsey CDA will spend approximately $109,297,410 on lunch and dinner annually. Based on the 2017 Restaurant Industry Pocket Factbook published by the National Restaurant Association, the average unit sales of a full -service restaurant in 2014 were $992,000 and a quick service restaurant were $861,000.14 This suggests the Ramsey CDA can support either: 110 full service restaurants ($109,297,410/$992,000) or 127 quick service restaurants ($109,297,410/$861,000) Based on data from the Claritas Consumer Buying Power survey in 2017,15 similar calculations yield that the trade area can support as many as 152 food service and drinking venues. Considering the variety of restaurants, we conclude that the Ramsey CDA has a market size that can support between 110 to 152 restaurants. 13 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Expenditures in 2015. https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/consumer-expenditures/2015/home.htm#_edn1 14 http://www.mnrestaurant.org/uploads/2/8/9/5/28957157/nra_pocket_factbook_feb_2017-final.pdf 15 Claritas. Claritas - Consumer Buying Power 2017. s.l. : Claritas with environics analytics, 2017. 5