Agenda - Planning Commission - 08/02/2018

Home

b. 2025 Non -Site Traffic Forecasting Traffic forecasts were developed for the year 2025 No -Build Scenarios based on development staging plans from the City of Dayton. Using these plans the developments were sorted into several geographic areas and a trip generation analysis was done on each area. These trip generation tables can be seen in the Appendix. The generated trips for each of these areas was routed through the study area based on the 2025 trip distribution pattern, while factoring in the specific location for each area. The majority of expected growth in the immediate area of Dayton is covered by the specific development staging plans detailed above. Beyond this specific growth, additional development in the surrounding region is expected to increase traffic through the study intersections. To account for this additional traffic growth, a generic background growth factor was added to the study intersections. Historic counts, the City's comprehensive plan traffic projections, and the MnDOT State Aid projection growth factor for Hennepin County were examined to determine the non- specific growth rate. These rates were adjusted down to reflect that a significant portion of this growth is reflected in the traffic for the specific developments. Based on this information, and after discussion with the City, a two percent annual traffic increase was applied to all movements not directly entering or exiting any developments. These specific development movements were not increased as the trip generations completed for the development already accounted for the increase in vehicles expected along the development access roadways. An increase of '/- percent was added to the residential neighborhoods to the north of Dayton River Road where lack of available land and fully built residential parcels will result in lower increases in traffic growth. The 1/2-percent growth rate per year, through 2025, accounts for development of the few remaining parcels of land as well as a small increase in trips (no cut -through or commuter traffic in this area expected). These growth rates were applied to volume calculations. Finally, after a review of additional studies near the project area, a lump sum increase in traffic was added to Brockton Lane/CSAH 81 traveling to and from the southern Rogers area. This traffic accounts for the expected developments just outside of our project model, but which are still expected to interact at Brockton Lane/CSAH 81 study intersection, the southern -most intersection in the traffic model. c. 2040 Planned Roadway Network Multiple changes to the roadway network in the study area are planned by the year 2040. These changes include a new interchange with Interstate 94 near the existing Holly Lane, an extension of French Lake Road to Brockton Lane, and re-routing and extension of 113th Avenue and TH 81 to Zanzibar Lane. Appendix F shows these planned roadway changes. Traffic Impact Study 7 North Dayton Development CONSULTING