Agenda - Planning Commission - 08/02/2018

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For the purposes of this study, these roadway changes were implemented for the 2040 analyses. Due to these changes, the trip distribution was adjusted to reflect new driving patterns that will certainly occur. These patterns include an increase in traffic from the south along Interstate 94 and a decrease in traffic along TH 169, TH 81, and Dayton River Road as vehicles shift to Interstate 94 from these routes. The trip distribution for the 2040 scenarios is: i. 20% of the generated traffic to/from the west on 141 Avenue, TH 81, and Interstate 94. ii. 27% of the generated traffic to/from the north on TH 101, Dayton River Road, and TH 169. iii. 21% of the generated traffic to/from the east/southeast on TH 81, TH 169, and Dayton River Road. iv. 32% percent of the generated traffic to/from the south on Brockton Lane and Interstate 94. Traffic generated by the site development was assigned to the area roadways per this distribution pattern for the 2040 Build scenarios. The full detailed trip distribution percentages can be seen in the Appendix. d. 2040 Non -Site Traffic Forecasting Similar to the 2025 No -Build Scenarios, traffic forecasts were developed for 2040 based on the development plans from the City of Dayton. These new developments are located on the southwest corner of Dayton and do not cause significant impact to the traffic model roadways due to their geographic location and relation to major roadways. Based on this, the new trips were manually distributed to the sites through the roadway network. The Trip generation for the 2040 No -Build scenarios can be seen in the Appendix. As with the 2025 scenario, growth in the surrounding region is expected beyond that specified for the City of Dayton. Therefore, the two percent annual growth rate was continued through the year 2040. The 1/-percent growth rate used for the residential areas north of Dayton River Road were assumed to be fully built by this time and no additional growth was added. Due to the planned changes to the roadway network in the area by 2040, additional modifications were made to the existing volumes in the study network. These adjustments were based upon a comparison of the existing and forecasted volumes from the December 2015 Brockton Lane Area Transportation Study as well as other previous traffic studies and considering likely travel patterns to the regional transportation system. e. Total Traffic Traffic forecasts were developed for the year 2025 and 2040 Build Scenarios by adding the traffic generated by the proposed development to the No -Build volumes. The resultant Build peak hour forecasts are shown in the Appendix under the capacity analysis section for each scenario. Traffic Impact Study 8 North Dayton Development CONSULTING