Agenda - Environmental Policy Board - 10/15/2018

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of trip making by non -auto modes. Because of the limited nature of transit service to the site, no reductions have been made for alternate mode use. Rather, a single factor was used to calculate the percentage of trips that would remain internal to the proposed redevelopment. This factor considers the diversity of uses within the project and their potential to create linked trips among the project land uses. This factor is based on ITE data for mixed -use developments and is a function of the size and mix of land uses. For the proposed project, the diversity factor indicates that approximately nine percent of AM peak trips and about 16 percent of PM peak trips would be internal. No adjustments for pass -by or diverted traffic10 within the site were made, although some of the uses would warrant incorporation of such reductions. Accordingly, the amount of linked trips is conservatively low in relation to the scale and mix of land uses. Table 21.1 shows the trip generation rates for the proposed redevelopment scenario estimated using the ITE rates for both the AM and PM peak hours. Northstar riders who would park and ride from the site (assumed to be 150 peak hour trips) were included in the analysis, but were added directly to the intersection traffic assignment and are not shown in the trip generation numbers in Table 21.1. Since the existing site is largely vacant and not generating any traffic, no adjustments were made to subtract existing trips from the project site. Table 21.1: Project Trip Generation AM PEAK HOUR PM PEAK HOUR Daily Total In Out Total In Out I Total New Trips 51,200 2,920 1,700 1,220 5,210 2,480 2,730 Future direction of approach trip distribution for the site -generated trips was estimated using forecast data for zones in the project area from the Metropolitan Council's regional travel demand forecasting model and used to assign trips to turning movements at the study area intersections. The regional forecasts used for this analysis did not include the new Mississippi River crossing. Accordingly, traffic distribution is highly biased with about 43 percent of the trips being made to and from the south and east along TH 10 (this also includes traffic destined south on TH 169). It should be noted that with the new Mississippi River crossing, approximately one-third to one-half of the project trips on TH 10 to the south and east would redistribute to the new crossing." AM and PM peak hour capacity analyses were conducted for all the study area intersections using Synchro software that estimates delay at intersections on the basis of Highway Capacity Manuah2 procedures. Since many of the intersections included in the analysis are currently stop controlled, it is important to distinguish that while signalized and all -way stop controlled 1° Pass by and diverted trips are opportunity trips that are already on the street system and divert to a new land use. As such, these trips are included in the counted traffic volumes (other than at site access points) and are double - counted in the trip generation rates for some retail uses. 11 See Ramsey Smart Growth Twin Cities Opportunity Site (Calthorpe Associates, 2003) 12 Highway Capacity Manual, Special Report 209, Transportation Research Board, Washington D.C. 21-5