Agenda - Council - 08/27/2019 - Laserfiche WebLink

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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS Mobility It is important to note that demand is somewhat fluid between other west/northwest Twin Cit- ies Metro Area communities and will be impacted by development activity in nearby areas. Estimated Demand for General -Occupancy Rental Housing Table HD-1 presents our calculation of general -occupancy rental housing demand in Ramsey. This analysis identifies potential demand for rental housing that is generated from both new households and turnover households. A portion of the demand will be drawn from existing households in Ramsey that want to upgrade their housing situations. The 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new general occupancy rental hous- ing, therefore, we limit demand from senior household growth to only 20% and include all households under the age of 65. According to our projections, Ramsey is expected to add 1,279 new households under 65 and 709 over 65 between 2019 and 2030. We estimate that 14% of those under 65 will be renting their housing, while only 6% of senior households are renters. This produces demand for 222 new general occupancy rental housing units between 2019 and 2030. Demand is also forecast to emerge from existing Market Area householders through turnover. An estimated 1,095 renter -occupied households under the age of 65 plus 106 senior renters are located in Ramsey in 2019. Based on mobility data from the Census Bureau, an estimated 89% of under 65 renter households and 84% of over 65 renter households will turnover in a 15-year period, resulting in 1,059 existing households projected to turnover. Finally, we estimate 20% of the existing renter households will seek new rental housing, resulting in demand for 968 rental units through 2030. Next, we estimate that 30% of the total demand for new rental units in Ramsey will come from people currently living outside of the City of Ramsey. Adding demand from outside Ramsey to the existing demand potential, results in a total estimated demand for 550 rental housing units by 2030. Based on a review of rental household incomes and sizes and monthly rents at existing projects, we estimate that approximately 5% of the total demand will be for subsidized housing (30% AMI), 15% will be for affordable housing (40% to 60% AMI), and 80% will be for market rate housing (non -income restricted). As of June 2019, there are no under construction or approved general occupancy rental housing projects that will satisfy the calculated rental housing demand, which results in an overall de- mand for 28 subsidized units, 83 affordable units, and 440 market rate units. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 126