Laserfiche WebLink
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />TABLE HD-3 <br />DEEP-SUBSIDY/SHALLOW SUBSIDY ACTIVE ADULT HOUSING DEMAND <br />CITY OF RAMSEY <br />2019 and 2024 <br />2019 <br />2024 <br />Age of Householder <br />Age of Householder <br />55-64 65-74 75+ <br />55-64 65-74 75+ <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of <$35,000' <br />Less Households w/ Incomes of $30,000 to $34,999' <br />(times) Homeownership Rate <br />166 201 149 <br />- 26 23 25 <br />x 93% 94% 94% <br />170 220 255 <br />- 43 47 50 <br />x 93% 94% 94% <br />(equals) Total Potential Market Base <br />(times) Potential Capture Rate <br />= 142 179 126 <br />x 1.5% 10.0% 20.0% <br />= 130 176 208 <br />x 1.5% 10.0% 20.0% <br />(equals) Demand Potential <br />= 2 18 25 <br />= 2 18 42 <br />(equals) Potential Demand from Residents <br />(plus) Demand from outside Ramsey (30%) <br />= 45 <br />+ 19 <br />= 61 <br />+ 26 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential <br />= 65 <br />Deep -Subsidy Shallow -Subsidy <br />= 87 <br />Deep -Subsidy Shallow -Subsidy <br />(times) % by Product Type <br />x 25% x 75% <br />x 25% x 75% <br />(equals) Demand Potential by Product Type <br />(minus) Existing and Pending Sub-Aff Active Adult Units' <br />= 16 = 48 <br />- 0 - 0 <br />= 22 = 65 <br />- 0 - 0 <br />(equals) Excess Demand for Aff/Sub Units <br />= 16 = 48 <br />= 22 = 65 <br />' 2024 calculations define income -qualified households as all households with incomes less than $40,000. Homeowner households with incomes between $35,000 and $39,999 are excluded from the <br />market potential for financially -assisted housing. <br />Existing units are deducted at market equilibrium, or 97% occupancy. <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />Estimated Demand for Independent Living (Congregate) Senior Housing <br />Table HD-4 presents our demand calculations for congregate housing in Ramsey in 2019 and <br />2024. <br />The potential age- and income -qualified base for congregate senior housing includes all senior <br />(65+) households with incomes of $35,000 as well as homeowner households with incomes be- <br />tween $30,000 and $34,999 who would qualify with the proceeds from the sales of their <br />homes. The proportion of eligible homeowners is based on the 2017 ACS homeownership rates <br />of the Ramsey seniors. The number of age, income, and asset -qualified households in Ramsey <br />is estimated to be 1,364 households in 2019. <br />Demand for congregate housing is need -drive, which reduces the qualified market to only the <br />portion of seniors who need some assistance. Adjusting to include appropriate capture rates <br />for each age cohort (1.5% of households age 65 to 74 and 13.5% of households age 75 and <br />older) results in a local demand potential for 55 congregate units in 2019. <br />We estimate that seniors currently residing outside of the Ramsey will generate 25% of the de- <br />mand for congregate senior housing. Together, the demand from Ramsey seniors and demand <br />from seniors who are willing to locate to the Ramsey totals 74 congregate units in 2019. <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 131 <br />