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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />As of June 2019, there are no under construction or approved senior housing projects with con- <br />gregate units. This results in an overall demand for 74 congregate units. <br />Adjusting for inflation, we estimate that households with incomes of $40,000 or more and sen- <br />ior homeowners with incomes between $35,000 and $39,999 would qualify for congregate <br />housing in 2024. Following the same methodology, demand is calculated to increase to 109 <br />units through 2024. <br />TABLE HD-4 <br />MARKET RATE CONGREGATE RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND <br />CITY OF RAMSEY <br />2019 and 2024 <br />2019 <br />2024 <br />Age of Householder <br />Age of Householder <br />65-74 75+ <br />65-74 75+ <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of >$35,0001 <br />1,051 268 <br />1,249 417 <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of $30,000 to $34,9991 <br />+ 23 25 <br />+ 47 50 <br />(times) Homeownership Rate <br />x 94% 94% <br />x 94% 94% <br />(equals) Total Potential Market Base <br />= 1,073 292 <br />= 1,293 464 <br />(times) Potential Capture Rate2 <br />x 1.5% 13.5% <br />x 1.5% 13.5% <br />(equals) Potential Demand <br />= 16 + 39 <br />= 19 + 63 <br />Potential Demand from Ramsey Residents <br />= 55 <br />= 82 <br />(plus) Demand from Outside Ramsey (25%) <br />+ 18 <br />+ 27 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential <br />= 74 <br />= 109 <br />(minus) Existing and Pending Congregate Units3 <br />- 0 <br />- 0 <br />(equals) Total Congregate Demand Potential <br />= 74 <br />= 109 <br />12024 calculations define income -qualified households as all households wi h incomes greater than $40,000 and homeowner <br />households with incomes between $35,000 and $39,999. <br />2The potential capture rate is derived from data from the Summary Health Statistics for the U.S. Population: National Health <br />Interview Survey, 2008 by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The capture rate used is the percentage of seniors <br />needing assistance with IADLs, but not ADLs (seniors needing assistance with ADLs typcially need assistance with multiple IADLs <br />and are primary candidates for service -intensive assisted living). <br />3 Competitive units include congregate units at 95% occupancy (market equilibrium). <br />Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING <br />132 <br />