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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS Estimated Demand for Assisted Living Housing Table HD-5 presents our demand calculations for assisted living senior housing in Ramsey in 2019 and 2024. This analysis focuses on the potential private pay/market rate demand for assisted living units. The availability of more intensive support services such as meals, housekeeping and personal care at assisted living facilities usually attracts older, frailer seniors. According to the 2009 Overview of Assisted Living (which is a collaborative research project by the American Association of Homes and Services for the Aging, the American Seniors Housing Association, National Center for Assisted Living, and National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing and Care Industry), the average age of residents in freestanding assisted living facilities was 87 years in 2008. Hence, the age -qualified market for assisted living is defined as seniors ages 75 and over, as we estimate that of the half of demand from seniors under age 87, almost all would be from seniors over age 75. In 2019, there are a projected 711 seniors age 75 and older in Ramsey. Demand for assisted living housing is need -driven, which reduces the qualified market to only the portion of seniors who need assistance. According to a study completed by the U.S. Census Bureau (1999 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) files), 30% of seniors needed assistance with everyday activities (from 25.5% of 75-to-79-year-olds, to 33.6% of 80-to-84-year-olds and 51.6% of 85+ year olds). Applying these percentages to the senior population yields a potential assisted living market of 224 seniors in Ramsey. Due to the supportive nature of assisted living housing, most daily essentials are included in monthly rental fees, which allow seniors to spend a higher proportion of their incomes on housing with basic services. Therefore, the second step in determining the potential demand for assisted living housing in Ramsey is to identify the income -qualified market based on a senior's ability to pay the monthly rent. We consider seniors in households with incomes of $40,000 or greater to be income -qualified for assisted living senior housing in Ramsey. Households with incomes of $40,000 could afford monthly assisted living fees of $3,000 by allocating 90% of their income toward the fees. According to the 2009 Overview of Assisted Living, the average arrival income of assisted living residents in 2008 was $27,260, while the average annual assisted living fee was $37,281 ($3,107/month). This data highlights that seniors are spending down assets to live in assisted living and avoid institutional care. Thus, in addition to households with incomes of $40,000 or greater, there is a substantial base of senior households with lower incomes who income -qual- ify based on assets — their homes, in particular. For each age group in Table HD-5, we estimate the income -qualified percentage to be all sen- iors in households with incomes above $40,000 (who could afford monthly rents of $3,000+ per month) plus 40% of the estimated seniors in homeowner households with incomes below MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 133