Agenda - Council - 08/27/2019 - Laserfiche WebLink

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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS $40,000 (who will spend down assets, including home -equity, in order to live in assisted living housing). This results in a total potential market of 163 units in 2019. Because the vast majority of assisted living residents are single (88% according to the 2009 Overview of Assisted Living), our demand methodology multiplies the total potential market by the percentage of seniors age 75+ in Ramsey living alone. Based on 2017 ACS data, only 44% of age 75+ households in Ramsey lived alone. Applying this percentage results in a total base of 554 age/income-qualified singles. The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living found that 12% of residents in assisted living were couples. There are a total of 303 age/income-qualified seniors needing assistance in Ramsey including both couples and singles. We estimate that roughly 60% of the qualified market needing significant assistance with Activities of Daily Living ("ADLs") would either remain in their homes or less service -intensive senior housing with the assistance of a family member or home health care, or would need greater care provided in a skilled care facility. The remaining 40% could be served by assisted living housing. Applying this potential market penetration rate of 40% results in demand for 33 assisted living units in 2019. We estimate that a portion of demand for assisted living units (25%) will come from outside of the Ramsey. Applying this figure results in total potential demand for 43 market rate assisted living units in Ramsey. There are a total of 48 assisted living units in Ramsey. After deducting these competitive units (minus a 93% occupancy rate) from the total demand potential, we calculate that there is no current demand for assisted living units in the Ramsey in 2019. However, after applying the aforementioned calculations to the age/income-qualified base in 2024, resulting in demand for 27 units. Additional demand could come from seniors that will need to receive supplemental income in order to afford assisted living or memory care housing. While some of these seniors will re- ceive income from the sales of their homes, others will need to rely on other sources of public aid. The Elderly Waiver program has provided public funding for seniors who wish to receive "alternative" care that allows them to stay in the community as opposed to receiving similar care at a nursing home. Most assisted living developments require residents to have lived in their facility for a certain amount of time before they can use a waiver, and many try to limit the amount of waivers ac- cepted within the community to around roughly 10% to 20%. Some facilities accept higher amounts of residents on waivers and many newer facilities do not accept any waivers. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 134