Agenda - Council - 08/27/2019 - Laserfiche WebLink

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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS Estimated Demand for Memory Care Housing Table HD-6 presents our demand calculations for market rate memory care senior housing in Ramsey in 2019 and 2024. Demand is calculated by starting with the estimated Ramsey senior (age 65+) population in 2019 and multiplying by the incidence rate of Alzheimer's/dementia among this population's age cohorts. According to the Alzheimer's Association (Alzheimer's Disease Facts and Figures, 2007), 2% of seniors ages 65 to 74, 19% of seniors ages 75 to 84, and 42% of seniors ages 85+ are inflicted with Alzheimer's Disease. This yields a potential market of 203 seniors in Ramsey in 2019. Because of the staff -intensive nature of dementia care, typical monthly fees for this type of housing are at least $4,000 and range upwards of $5,000 to $6,000 when including service packages. Based on our review of senior household incomes in Ramsey, homeownership rates and home sale data, we estimate that 66% of seniors in Ramsey would have incomes and/or as- sets to sufficiently cover the costs of memory care housing. This figure takes into account mar- ried couple households where one spouse may have memory care needs and allows for a suffi- cient income for the other spouse to live independently. Multiplying the number of seniors with Alzheimer's/dementia (203 seniors) by the income -qualified percentage results in a total of 135 age/income-qualified seniors in the Ramsey in 2019. According to data from the National Institute of Aging, about 25% of all individuals with memory care impairments comprise the market for memory care housing units. This figure considers that seniors in the early stages of dementia will be able to live independently with the care of a spouse or other family member, while those in the later stages of dementia will re- quire intensive medical care that would only be available in skilled care facilities. Applying this figure to the estimated population with memory impairments yields a potential market of about 34 seniors in the Ramsey. We estimate that 25% of the overall demand for memory care housing would come from out- side of Ramsey. Together, demand totals 45 memory care units in 2019. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 136