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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />TABLE HD-6 <br />MARKET RATE MEMORY CARE DEMAND <br />CITY OF RAMSEY <br />2019 and 2024 <br />2019 <br />2024 <br />65 to 74 Population <br />2,140 <br />2,619 <br />(times) Dementia Incidence Rate' <br />x 2% <br />x 2% <br />(equals) Estimated Age 65 to 74 Pop. with Dementia <br />= 43 <br />= 52 <br />75 to 84 Population <br />602 <br />1,045 <br />(times) Dementia Incidence Rate' <br />x 19% <br />x 19% <br />(equals) Estimated Age 75 to 84 Pop. with Dementia <br />= 114 <br />= 199 <br />85+ Population <br />109 <br />163 <br />(times) Dementia Incidence Rate' <br />x 42% <br />x 42% <br />(equals) Estimated Age 85+ Pop. with Dementia <br />= 46 <br />= 68 <br />(equals) Total Senior Population with Dementia <br />= 203 <br />= 319 <br />(times) Percent Income/Asset-Qualified' <br />x 66% <br />x 67% <br />(equals) Total Income -Qualified Market Base <br />= 135 <br />= 214 <br />(times) Percent Needing Specialized Memory Care Assistance <br />x 25% <br />x 25% <br />(equals) Total Need for Dementia Care <br />= 34 <br />= 53 <br />(plus) Demand from Outside the City of Ramsey (25%) <br />+ 11 <br />+ 18 <br />Total Demand for Memory Care Units <br />= 45 <br />71 <br />(minus) Existing and Pending Memory Care Units' <br />- 22 <br />- 22 <br />(equals) Excess Demand Potential <br />= 23 <br />= 49 <br />' Alzheimer's Association: Alzheimer's Disease Facts & Figures (2007) <br />' Includes seniors with income at $60,000 or above ($65,000 in 2024) plus 40% of homeowners with incomes below this threshold <br />(who will spend down assets, including home -equity), in order to live in memory care housing. <br />3 Existing memory care units at 7% vacancy rate. <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />We reduce the demand potential by accounting for the existing memory care product in Ram- <br />sey. There are a total of 24 units; however, we reduce the competitive units to include memory <br />care units at a 7% vacancy rate. Subtracting these competitive units results in a demand for 23 <br />units. <br />The same calculations are applied to the age/income-qualified base in 2024. Following the <br />same methodology, potential demand for market rate memory care units is expected to <br />increase to 49 units in Ramsey through 2024. <br />Estimated Demand for For -Sale Housing <br />Table HD-7 presents our demand calculations for general occupancy for -sale housing in Ramsey <br />between 2019 and 2030. <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 137 <br />