Agenda - Council - 08/27/2019 - Laserfiche WebLink

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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS The 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new general occupancy for -sale housing, therefore, we limit demand from household growth to only those households under the age of 65. According to our projections, the City of Ramsey is expected to add 1,988 new households; of which 1,279 households will be under the age of 65. We estimate that 86% have the propensity to own, which produces demand for 1,099 new general occupancy for -sale housing units between 2019 and 2030. Demand is also forecast to emerge from existing Ramsey householders through turnover. An estimated 6,745 owner -occupied households under age 65 are in the Ramsey in 2019. Based on mobility data from the Census Bureau, an estimated 57% of owner households will turnover in a thirteen -year period, resulting in over 3,800 existing households projected to turnover. Finally, we estimate 10% of the existing owner households will seek new for -sale housing, resulting in demand for 382 for -sale units through 2030. Next, we estimate that 25% of the total demand for new for -sale units in the Ramsey will come from people currently living outside of the City. A portion of this market will be former resi- dents of the area, such as "snow -birds" heading south for the winters. Adding demand from outside the Ramsey to the existing demand potential, results in a total estimated demand for 1,9,75 for -sale housing units by 2030. Based on land available, building trends, and demographic shifts (increasing older adult popula- tion), we project 68% of the for -sale owners will prefer traditional single-family product types while the remaining 32% will prefer a maintenance -free multi -family product (i.e. twin homes, townhomes, condominiums, detached townhomes, etc.). Subtracting any vacant platted lots in subdivisions and planned for -sale single-family and multi- family projects, demand exists for 1,104 single-family homes and 373 for -sale multifamily units through 2030. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 138