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September 11, 2021 <br />Page 50 <br />Traffic Forecasts & Analysis <br />The Northwest Metro Mississippi River Crossing Feasibility Analysis developed year 2040 traffic <br />forecasts to evaluate the impact of project concepts on future travel demand, traffic patterns, and <br />congestion. These forecasts were developed for a no -build and four build scenarios, one for each <br />project concept introduced in Section V: Concept Development. By comparing no -build and build <br />traffic forecasts, the feasibility analysis team was able to determine how and to what extent the <br />concepts change regional traffic patterns and traffic volumes at locations throughout the network. <br />This analysis is a determinative factor in the study's assessment of concept feasibility. <br />The traffic forecasts used in this study were developed using the regional Activity Based Model <br />(ABM). The ABM is maintained by the Metropolitan Council and uses socioeconomic and roadway <br />system assumptions that are consistent with the regional development assumptions laid out in <br />Thrive MSP 2040 and regional transportation policy plans. Information about 2040 forecast <br />assumptions and model validation is available in Appendix D. <br />As part of the study's traffic analysis, the study team tested concept effectiveness under different <br />assumptions about future travel behavior. The purpose of the test was to determine whether <br />concepts developed in Section V: Concept Development remain effective if post COVID-19 <br />telecommuting rates are above rates assumed in traditional traffic forecasts. Test results are <br />summarized in this section under 2040 Traffic Sensitivity Test and detailed in Appendix D. <br />Northwest Metro Mississippi River Crossing Feasibility Analysis <br />