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estimate, Treasury applied a variation of the final rule's revenue loss calculation on available <br />aggregate state and local government tax revenue data as reported by the Census Bureau for the <br />first calculation date of December 31, 2020. This estimate accounts for expected variation across <br />recipient experiences and reflects the fact that the final rule revenue loss calculation provides <br />recipients several options for specific aspects (e.g., calendar year or fiscal year basis; use of <br />average state and local revenue growth rate or specific local rate). Treasury compared actual <br />calendar year 2020 tax revenues, in aggregate for all state and local governments, to several <br />counterfactual trends that vary based on the end date of the fiscal base year.284 Treasury also <br />assessed counterfactual trends using different revenue growth rates (e.g., the three-year average <br />growth rates of total state and local government general revenue for both fiscal years ending in <br />2016-2018 and fiscal years ending in 2017-2019; the three-year average growth rates of total <br />state and local government tax revenues for fiscal years ending in 2017-2019; and the one-year <br />growth rate for total state and local government tax revenue in the last full fiscal year before the <br />public health emergency). To account for the fact that the initial estimate, based on tax revenue, <br />only includes a subset of recipient aggregate general revenue, Treasury applied a scaling factor <br />to recognize that tax revenues generally make up just over half of general revenue collected by <br />state and local governments (i.e., Treasury scaled up its estimate based on tax revenue to produce <br />an estimate for total general revenue).285 The resulting calculation was then extrapolated over the <br />four-year period of performance and divided by a population of interest to arrive at an average <br />loss estimate. <br />284 Because the Census Bureau's state and local government tax revenue data is reported on a quarterly frequency, <br />fiscal base year end dates of March 31, June 30, September 30, and December 31 were used in this assessment. <br />285 Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances (2019). <br />241 <br />