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As noted above, Treasury estimated a range of scenarios to account for different values of <br />the variables that would impact average losses. For example, the end date of the fiscal base year <br />and growth rate of counterfactual revenue impact the overall estimate of revenue loss. In <br />addition, this estimate takes into consideration the limitations in the available data. The <br />governments covered by the Census Bureau's survey do not entirely align with SLFRF <br />recipients. The Census Bureau's figures are based on 50 state governments, all local government <br />property tax collectors and local government non -property tax imposers, representing at a <br />minimum the more than 38,000 "General Purpose Governments" defined by Census. However, <br />there are only roughly 32,000 recipients of SLFRF funds. Thus, Treasury considered the <br />difference between the number and type of entities in the Census Bureau data and the SLFRF <br />recipients. <br />Based on this methodology, Treasury estimates that average revenue loss (determined by <br />comparing the counterfactual revenue to actual revenue) may range from $0 to $11.7 million per <br />recipient over the period of performance.286 Treasury settled on a point estimate toward the upper <br />end of the range of potential averages, in part, to account for significant variation in the <br />experiences of recipient governments: some recipients likely experienced losses at the upper end <br />of this range of potential averages. A point estimate toward the upper end of the range errs <br />toward ensuring more recipients' experiences are covered and increases the utility of the <br />standard allowance for SLFRF recipients. Specifically, the program includes a very large number <br />of recipients with relatively smaller awards; these recipients have tended to describe having <br />greater difficulty completing the regular revenue loss calculation. Thus, selecting a point <br />estimate toward the higher end of the expected range not only increases the likelihood that the <br />286 This is the range of averages that Treasury calculated by varying the aforementioned assumptions. <br />242 <br />