Agenda - Council - 01/23/2024 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Traffic Forecasts For this study, the Metropolitan Council Regional Activity Based Model (ABM) was used to estimate travel demand and to develop future year daily traffic forecasts. Travel Demand Modeling and Traffic Forecasting Methodology The ABM was developed in 2016 to analyze travel demand and assist planning efforts throughout the Twin Cities region. For this study, the ABM was reviewed to ensure roadway network and current land use assumptions were incorporated. Existing conditions model validation was performed in the study area. Travel demand models provide an estimation of traffic forecasts that include many future year assumptions. However, all travel demand models contain residual error and results should be considered estimates with some margin of error. MnDOT currently considers long-range forecasts to have a precision of+/-15 percent. Decision-makers and designers should be aware of the uncertainty in long-range forecasts and whether that margin of error will affect outcomes of the recommended improvements. Travel Demand Model Assumptions Existing and future year socioeconomic (SE) development and roadway network assumptions were included in the ABM. Socioeconomic Data The development assumptions that were incorporated into the ABM and used for the CSAH 5 traffic study are shown in Table 6.The municipal totals are consistent with the Metropolitan Council's Thrive MSP 2040. Table 6:CSAH 5 Study Area Development Assumptions Year 2018 Year 2040 Municipality Population Households Employment Population Households Employment Andover 327610 10,532 57864 397800 137500 77100 Anoka 187522 71544 14,593 217200 87900 147400 Elk River 247891 87658 11,783 267900 97900 117500 Nowthen 47703 1,518 693 57500 27100 680 Ramsey 267821 9,226 77142 39,150 137500 89400 10