Agenda - Council Work Session - 10/03/2006

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Forecast for the Future study was utilized to generate a building coverage ratio of 40% and an initial price per square foot of $79.83. These values represent the averages for the commercial development listed in the previous study, and were originally based on market conditions and input from City Staff. The commercial growth assumes a full build -out by 2030 of the remaining 260 acres of commercial land listed in the 2001 comprehensive plan. The commercial and industrial growth were staged to coincide with the growth in employment predicted by the Metropolitan Council, which estimated a 40% increase in employment from 2000-2010, a 31% increase from 2010-2020, and a 29% increase in employment from 2020-2030. Growth Projections Three different growth projections were analyzed: a low growth projection with a 2030 population of 40,000, a median growth projection with a 2030 population of 50,000, and a high growth projection with a 2030 population of 60,000. The spreadsheets included in the departmental analysis are representative of this median growth projection. Each of the growth scenarios assumes a static rate of growth for the industrial and commercial portions of the City. The rate of housing growth was based on Metropolitan Council projections, which assume that the majority of the City's growth will occur from 2000-2020 with relatively minimal growth occurring from 2020-2030. Each scenario begins with a 2004 population of 20,040, based on Metropolitan Council statistics. As previously mentioned, the rate of housing growth is based on Metropolitan Council 2030 Framework projections, which originally predicted Ramsey having a population of 43,000 in 2020 and 44,000 in 2030. For the purposes of this study, and based on input from City Staff, it was determined that a population of 50,000 in 2030 would serve as the median growth projection. This was accomplished by increasing the number of households built each year, but retaining the persons per household statistics. The growth pattern predicted by the Metropolitan Council was retained, which indicated the majority of the growth in Ramsey would occur by 2020. As a result the median growth projection indicates a 2020 population of 49,130, and a 2030 population of 50,010. This is important to note, because if the Metropolitan Council projections remain true it will effectively narrow the window of time in which Ramsey can add staff and programming to create the high service level it desires. This is true of the low and high growth projections as well, which indicate 2020 populations of 39,418 and 58,842 respectively; based on this growth rate, even the low growth scenario predicts the City's population to nearly double by 2020. City of Ramsey — Organization Study and Review