Laserfiche WebLink
Forecast for the Future <br />4. Forecast for the Future <br />A forecasting model has been developed to assist the City as it analyzes how <br />and when to expand its operations to meet increasing service demand. An <br />overall picture of the general fund is provided detailing staff expansion, <br />related operating expenditures, and tax base growth, derived from base <br />assumptions. In addition, a forecast for each department is provided with the <br />section detailing the recommendations for that area. The following describes <br />how the model was created. <br />Growth Assumptions I Housing and Population: <br />Housing growth was estimated based on a 2030 population of 50,000. Persons <br />per household were calculated using information from the 2000 census, and are <br />representative of Anoka County. <br />The ratio of single-family to multi -family homes to be constructed was based <br />on information provided by City Staff. Yearly construction was assumed to be <br />_33% single-family homes and 66% multi -family. <br />Housing growth was staged based on the Metropolitan Council Estimates for <br />the rate of growth, which assumed an 84.56% increase in households from <br />2000-2010, a 48.62% increase from 2010-2020, and a 1.85% increase in <br />households from 2020-2030. <br />Housing values were based on $300,000 value for single-family homes and <br />$200,000 for multi -family. These values were cited in the Hoisington Koegler <br />study, and were also confirmed based on a review of a market conditions <br />prepared on March 23, 2006 and available on the Realty Times website. <br />Estimates for the high and low scenarios were created by adjusting household <br />growth as a whole. The growth rate was increased by one-third for the 60,000 <br />population scenario, and reduced by one-third for the 40,000 population <br />scenario. <br />Industrial and Commercial Growth Assumptions: <br />Industrial growth was estimated based primarily on available industrial acreage <br />as listed in the City's 2001 Comprehensive Plan. Based on the Comprehensive <br />Plan, 584 acres of industrial land remain within the City, both inside and <br />outside of the MUSA. The model assumes a full build -out of all 584 acres by <br />2030, based on an industry standard 25% coverage ratio between building and <br />lot size. The initial price per sq. ft. is $65, which increases over time at the rate <br />of 3%. <br />Commercial growth was estimated in much the same fashion. However, to <br />better incorporate the changing nature of commercial development in Ramsey, <br />specifically the Town Center project, information from the Hoisington Koegler <br />City of Ramsey — Organization Study and Review <br />