Agenda - Council Work Session - 07/28/2026

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THE IMPACT OF RESPONSIBLE BIDDER ORDINANCES ON UNION CONTRACTORS IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA However, it is important to note that the market share of union contractors in the 14 northern Indiana counties and 25 northern Illinois counties also increased during the period of analysis. Figure 3 investigates the entire region except for the 11 jurisdictions that passed new RBOs and had before -and - after data. This provides a "control group" of public projects to compare with the "treatment group" of local projects that experienced the RBO policy change. In 2018, before these 11 RBOs were passed, union contractors were awarded 96.9 percent of the entire market. In the years that have followed, union contractors won 98.4 percent of the market share. FIGURE 3: OVERALL CHANGE IN UNION MARKET SHARE IN 25 NORTHERN ILLINOIS COUNTIES AND 14 NORTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES, EXCLUDING THE 11 JURISDICTIONS THAT PASSED RBOS, DATA FROM JAN. 2018 THROUGH JUNE 2021 Illinois and Indiana Market (Excluding 11 Areas that Passed RBOs) Total Union Nonunion Union Value Value Value Market Share Pre-RBO (Jan. 2018-Dec. 2018) Post-RBO (Jan. 2019-June 2021) Difference Source: Authors' analysis of project bid data from the Indiana, Illinois, Iowa Foundation for Fair Contracting $4,771,472,168 $4,622,849,093 $146,841,457 $15,171,633,497 $14,931,653,208 $220,619,613 96.9% 98.4% +1.5 % The region has thus experienced a 1.5 percent increase in union market share in areas that did not otherwise change during this time (Figure 3). There are two implications of this finding. The first is that union contractors have become more competitive compared with their nonunion counterparts in the region since 2018. The second is that the market share of union contractors would have been expected to increase by an average of 1.5 percent in the 11 jurisdictions that passed RBOs even if they had not enacted the new ordinances. In other words, there is no reason to think that these 11 jurisdictions would deviate significantly from the rest of the regional construction market. Figure 4 calculates how much RBOs increased the market share of union contractors above -and -beyond the general trend in the market. The net effect of RBOs on the union market share can be determined by subtracting the 1.5 percent overall gain in union market share across the region from the 10.8 percent gain in union market share on post-RBO projects relative to pre-RBO projects in the jurisdictions that passed the ordinances. Consequently, the 11 new responsible bidder ordinances in Illinois and Indiana since 2019 have boosted the market share of union contractors by an estimated 9.3 percent (Figure 4). FIGURE 4: NET CHANGE IN UNION WIN SHARE AND UNION MARKET SHARE BASED ON THE DIFFERENCE -IN -DIFFERENCES IN THE 11 JURISDICTIONS THAT PASSED RBOS, WITH BEFORE -AND -AFTER DATA FROM JAN. 2018 THROUGH JUNE 2021 Net Impact of New RBOs in Illinois and Indiana Pre-RBO Post-RBO RBO Period Period Difference 11 Jurisdictions with New RBOs Illinois and Indiana (Excluding 11 Jurisdictions) Difference 87.1% 96.9% -9.8% 97.9% 98.4% -0.5% Source: Authors' analysis of project bid data from the Indiana, Illinois, Iowa Foundation for Fair Contracting This increase in the union market share mirrors the results of a 2020 study using similar data for northern Indiana and northern Illinois but excluding projects from the Chicago metropolitan area. That study compared projects that were covered by RBOs verses projects that were not and found that the RBOs increase union contractor win rates by between 9.2 percent and 11.9 percent, after accounting for the size of the project, location of the project, and other factors (Manzo, 2020). The current analysis builds upon that 2020 study by using the before -and -after "natural experiment" to directly assess the impact of enacting a responsible bidder ordinance. 5