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<br />DEMOGRAPIDC ANALYSIS
<br />
<br />· The Market Area is forecast to add about + 12,560 jobs (+20.4%) this decade to total 74,150
<br />jobs by 2010. After considering the current economic recession and slowed growth, particu-
<br />larly in outlying areas ofthe Metro Area, we believe the 2010 employment projections are
<br />aggressive. It is likely that the Market Area will miss employment growth projections by at
<br />least 35% to instead total about 69,750 jobs in 2010. Potentially, the degree to which projec-
<br />tions are missed may exceed our estimates.
<br />
<br />· Employment growth in the Market Area from 2010 to 2020 is currently projected for +9,950
<br />jobs. Although the total employment base will be much lower in 2010 than originally pro-
<br />jected, the forecast numerical growth between 2010 and 2020 may be achieved provided the
<br />economy recovers within the next 24 months. Due to current labor market conditions, it is
<br />likely that growth will be weighted toward the last half of the decade rather than the first half.
<br />
<br />TABLE D-8
<br />EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
<br />RAMSEY MARKET AREA
<br />1990 to 2020
<br />
<br />.
<br />Ramsey 1,941 3,587 5,000 7,000 1,646 84.8 1,413 39.4
<br />Oak Grove 200 354 585 650 154 77.0 231 65.3
<br />Anoka 11,755 13,250 13,100 13,900 1,495 12.7 -150 -1.1
<br />Andover 1,200 3,062 4,250 4,800 1,862 155.2 1,188 38.8
<br />Nowthen 259 294 275 350 35 13.5 -19 -6.5
<br />PMA Total 15,355 20,547 23,210 26,700 5,192 33.8 2,663 13.0
<br />Secondary Market Area 29,310 41,047 50,300 55,300 11,737 40.0 9,253 22.5
<br />noka County 81,132 106,814 120,000 130,280 25,682 31.7 13,186 12.3
<br />Twin Cities Metro Area 1,272,773 1,563,245 1,617,450 1,756,500 290,472 22.8 54,205 3.5
<br />Sources: Bureau of the Census; Metropolitan Council;
<br />Maxfield Research Inc.
<br />
<br />
<br />i\letropolitan Council
<br />
<br />· Located below, Table D-9 displays covered employment data for Anoka County. As the ta-
<br />ble shows, Anoka County experienced the most significant job growth in the first part ofthe
<br />decade in Education & Health Services (+3,190 jobs) and Leisure and Hospitality (+2,151
<br />jobs) while losing the most jobs in Manufacturing (-2,947 jobs). The trend of job loss in the
<br />Manufacturing sector has been experienced in various locations in the Twin Cities Metropoli-
<br />tan Area as a result of the earlier recession this decade that began in 2001.
<br />
<br />· Employment increased by only 4.7% in the County due primarily to losses in manufacturing
<br />and construction. Total covered employment was estimated at nearly 114,000 jobs as of the
<br />end of2008.
<br />
<br />· Average annual wages have increased by 2.8% per year between 2000 and 2008. This indi-
<br />cates that average wages in Anoka County have just kept pace with inflation during this pe-
<br />riod. However, the rapid rise in housing prices during the middle of the decade meant th
<br />those that were trying to buy housing saw their purchasing power erode as prices so
<br />
<br />
<br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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