Agenda - Public Works Committee - 02/21/2023

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911111110 For this study, the Metropolitan Council Regional Activity Based Model (ABM) was used to estimate travel demand and to develop future year daily traffic forecasts. iiu: IIII IIII1 q:iiu ul iiu cl IIII ,(:,1, IIII iiu iiu m 1; iiu mcl IIIV ,iiuec;a ..iii iiu°m IIII n: IIIV u„ �,c 1 I°IIII f The ABM was developed in 2016 to analyze travel demand and assist planning efforts throughout the Twin Cities region. For this study, the ABM was reviewed to ensure roadway network and current land use assumptions were incorporated. Existing conditions model validation was performed in the study area. Travel demand models provide an estimation of traffic forecasts that include many future year assumptions. However, all travel demand models contain residual error and results should be considered estimates with some margin of error. MnDOT currently considers long-range forecasts to have a precision of +/-15 percent. Decision -makers and designers should be aware of the uncertainty in long-range forecasts and whether that margin of error will affect outcomes of the recommended improvements. Travel ID aeornaulmd IM odaeIII Assuilllumlll l liioio s Existing and future year socioeconomic (SE) development and roadway network assumptions were included in the ABM. Socioeconomic Data The development assumptions that were incorporated into the AB1M1 and used for the CSAH 5 traffic study are shown in Table 6. The municipal totals are consistent with the Metropolitan Council's Mire AISP 2040. Table 6: CS, IH 5 Stuy , reaa Development , ssuriptiiorns Year 2018 Year 2040 Municipality Population Households Employment Population Households Employment Andover 32.61.0 1.0,532 5,864 9,8(J 1.. ,500 7,1..00 Anoka 1..852... 7,.544 14.593 2.l..„..00 8,900 14.400 Elk IR=Rivc'r 24891 8 6!58 1..1.... 3 26,900 900 1..1 00 INowthcii 4.703 1...51..8 9 i 5,500 2..1.00 680 (Ramsey 26,.821. 9,.226 (,1.. 2. 3) 1..50 1:1500 8,400 10